351
FXUS66 KHNX 191105
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
305 AM PST THU FEB 19 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF'S AND KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FINAL WAVE OF A COLD SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW.
2. WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA UNTIL THIS
EVENING AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
INCLUDING THE I-5/GRAPEVINE AREA.
3. STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES,
DOWNED TREES, AND ROAD HAZARDS FOR MANY MOUNTAIN AREAS AS WELL
AS THE MOJAVE DESERT. INCREASED WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ALL AREAS
TODAY.
4. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMEPRATURES ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING, WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH DAYS.
5. AN ADDITIONAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINTER IMPACTS TO
THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA THIS EVENING WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 2500 FEET. THESE SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY'S WAVE ALONG WITH MOISTURE
FROM THE NEXT PERTURBATION OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS
NEXT AND FINAL WAVE OF THE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SNOWFALL FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA AND
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA NEARER TO 3,000 FEET AS THIS WAVE
PROGRESSES, BUT WILL RISE NEARER TO 5,000 FEET ACROSS KERN
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN TULARE COUNTY DUE TO WARMER MARINE MARINE
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH. THE LOCALIZED ARE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY NEAR MID-DAY, CAUSING CLEARING CONDITIONS OVER
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH LIKE ON
TUESDAY, THESE CLEARER CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND CONTINUING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS, WITH AROUND A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
AS THE LONGWAVE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
INTO FRIDAY, THE 500 MB JET STREAM WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, BRINGING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH DAYS AS THERE IS A
MODERATE PROBABILITY (50 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR FREEZING LOWS ON
FRIDAY IN THE NON-URBAN AREAS, AND A MODERATE TO HIGH
PROBABILITY (70 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING. UNDERSTANDABLY, COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA NEVADA, WITH GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR MORNING LOWS UNDER 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE
6,000 FEET FRIDAY, THEN SIMILAR PROBABILITIES OVER 7,000 FEET
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THIS FAILS TO RECOGNIZE THE ADDITION OF WIND
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 MPH BOTH DAYS, WHICH WILL CAUSE COLDER WIND
CHILLS. IN ADDITION, STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS CURRENT SNOWPACK
CAN RESULT IN LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
IN REGARD TO WINDS, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
MOJAVE DESERT ZONES UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY FOR THE DESERT FLOOR, AND
UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE MOJAVE SLOPES. THERE IS A 40 TO 50
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 MPH IN THE
DESERT AREAS ON THURSDAY, BUT WITH A 90 TO 100 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR THE SLOPES; A 70 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
55 MPH GUSTS ALSO EXISTS FOR THE MOJAVE SLOPES OVER THE SAME
TIME PERIOD.
THE MORE STABLE PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED, AS ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS EXPRESSES STRONG
FAVORABILITY FOR AN ADDITIONAL SYSTEM TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC REGION FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IN THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER OFFSHORE, AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL ENTRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ORIENTATION WILL RESULT IN
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS THAN THE CURRENT
SYSTEM, WITH NBM 25TH PERCENTILES (75 PERCENT CHANCE TO BE
ABOVE) CREEPING UP ABOVE 7,000 FEET FOR MONDAY EVENING, AND
ABOVE 8,000 FEET FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING CONCERNS
FOR A RAIN-ON-SNOW EVENT, ESPECIALLY UNDER THESE LEVELS AND
WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL THROUGH 21Z THU WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW UNTIL 06Z
FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER
18Z THU. THERE IS ALSO A 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS 12-15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY, AND WINDS 20-30
KTS WITH GUSTS 35-45 KTS CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL
12Z FRIDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: BURNING DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA, MERCED, AND
TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA
NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ338.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR CAZ301>307-309>312-314>316.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ318-320-
322>331.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ333>336.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ337-339.
PUBLIC...SM/BSO
AVIATION....BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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