310
FXUS66 KHNX 191847
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1047 AM PST THU FEB 19 2026
UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
1. FINAL STORM OF THE WEEK WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT, LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
2. WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA UNTIL THIS
EVENING AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
INCLUDING THE I-5/GRAPEVINE AREA.
3. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR POWER
OUTAGES, DOWNED TREES, AND ROAD HAZARDS FOR MANY MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT AREAS TODAY.
4. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMEPRATURES ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING, WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH DAYS.
5. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK
SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH FAIRLY HIGH SNOW
LEVELS, BUT PRJECTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE MINOR IMPACTS
AND AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
THE CORE OF A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE
DAY TODAY, WHEN SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3,000 AND 4,000 FEET WILL BE
COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WELL WITH 500
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AROUND -33C. AS THE FLOW TURNS WEST TO
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MOST OF THE VALLEY WILL
STAY RAIN FREE, BUT MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THAT FLOW WILL STILL
SQUEEZE OUT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SIERRAS AND TEHACHAPIS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ALSO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 2,000 FEET. AS A
RESULT, THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND ROAD IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY MORNING, INCLUDING
SOME MAJOR ROADS LIKE THE I-5 GRAPEVINE. THE WINTER STORM
WARNINGS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS A RESULT AND LOOK GOOD WITH
NO CHANGES EXPECTED.
THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL BY LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LOW AND WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH LOWS
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
FREEZE WATCHES ARE IN PLAY AS A RESULT, WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNINGS SOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO REBOUND LATER SATURDAY AND APPROACH NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S COMMON IN THE VALLEY.
THE NEXT STORM WINDOW OPENS UP ON MONDAY AND LASTS THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND A LARGE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH DEEP AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE TROPICS AIMS ITSELF OVER
THE WEST COAST. THE LATEST PROJECTIONS CONTINUE THE TREND
STARTED YESTERDAY WITH THE PLUME FOCUSING ITSELF NORTH OF OUR
AREA. IF THIS HOLDS THE COURSE, THEN WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
IN THAT WINDOW, BUT IT WILL BE A FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED EVENT WITH
ONLY MINOR IMPACTS. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN. BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SNOW LEVEL WILL
BE HIGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION, LIKELY 8,000 FEET AND ABOVE.
AVIATION
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS MORNING
DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL THROUGH ROUGHLY 21Z THEN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOWFALL THROUGH 07Z FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS 12
TO 18 KTS, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 04Z FRIDAY IN THE
VALLEY; SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 KTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
WITH GUSTS 35-45KTS CONTINUES THROUGH 10Z FRIDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: BURNING DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA, MERCED, AND
TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA
NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ338.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ300>303-
305>307-317.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ301>307-309>312-314>316.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ318-
320-322>331.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR CAZ318-320-322-323-325>331.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ333>336.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ337-339.
PUBLIC...RK
AVIATION....JW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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