871
FXUS66 KHNX 121055
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
355 AM PDT THU MAR 12 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
2. RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN
CLEAR CONDITIONS AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. OVER THE REST
OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN, RESULTING IN A STRONG WARMING TREND
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT AND IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. BY NEXT MONDAY, THERE IS A 80 TO 90
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 85
DEGREES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY, WITH SIMILAR PROBABILITIES TO
EXCEED 90 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY, NBM ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT SUGGESTS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95 DEGREES FOR THE SJV, AND 80 TO 90 PERCENT
FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS AT THESE
TEMPERATURES, THE AREA WILL BE APPROACHING DAILY RECORD HIGHS
AND FLIRTING WITH MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARMING AIR TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO A DECREASE IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT WHICH WILL FALL BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT,
AND FOR THE HIGH SIERRA, DROPPING TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN 100- AND 1000-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURES AND AN INCREASE IN ERC IN THESE AREAS, HOWEVER VALUES
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOY
AVIATION....EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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