584
FXUS66 KHNX 121733
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1033 AM PDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY
THE WEEKEND.
2. DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHALLENGED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING, HAVING MOVED NORTHWARD FROM
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SUBSIDENCE
LINKED TO THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CLEAR AND DRY ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARMING
TREND CONTINUING FROM WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE ERODES TO THE SOUTH, SETTING UP WEST-TO-EAST ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD. HOWEVER,
AS SUNDAY APPROACHES, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STRONGER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE EAST PACIFIC WHICH WILL
CENTER OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. SINKING AIR AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL TRAP HEAT NEARER TO THE SURFACE AND CONTINUE THE WARMING
TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
UPWARDS OF 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASON AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM EXPRESSES A 90 TO 100 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR HIGHS TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY MIDWEEK, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 50 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY
TO EXCEED 95 DEGREES. MANY OF THE PROJECTED TEMEPRATURES ACROSS
THE VALLEY AREAS WILL BE NEARING OR BREAKING DAILY RECORD
HIGHS, WITH ALL-TIME MONTHLY RECORDS ALSO IN JEOPARDY FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BY A HANDFUL OF DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNTIL THE FOLLOWING WEEK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARMING AIR TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO A DECREASE IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT WHICH WILL FALL BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT,
AND FOR THE HIGH SIERRA, DROPPING TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN 100- AND 1000-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURES AND AN INCREASE IN ERC IN THESE AREAS, HOWEVER VALUES
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL
REMAINS AT LITTLE OR NO RISK.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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