117
FXUS66 KHNX 160536
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1036 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY AND
MONDAY AND EVEN WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHALLENGED THIS WEEK.
3. PRACTICE COLD WATER SAFETY, AS WATERWAYS WILL BE RUNNING COLD AND
FAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE HEADLINES THIS
WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE TODAY AND
TOMORROW AND STRENGTHENING. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES HAVE
CONTINUED TO FAVOR TUESDAY AS THE START OF THE STRETCH OF 90S
AS THERE IS A 65 TO 85 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGHS HITTING AT LEAST
90 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HAVE A WIDESPREAD 85 TO 95
PERCENT CHANCE OF HITTING 90 DEGREES WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF HIGHS OF AT LEAST 95 DEGREES. HOWEVER, A 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR TRIPLE DIGITS LOOM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR THE VALLEY. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CHALLENGE BOTH
DAILY AND EVEN MONTHLY RECORD TEMPERATURES. THE HEAT ALSO WILL
INCREASE THE SNOWMELT IN THE SIERRA NEVADA LEADING TO HIGHER
FLOWS OF COLDER WATER. PRACTICE COLD WATER SAFETY INCLUDING
WEARING A LIFE VEST AND BE AWARE THAT EVEN THE MOST EXPERIENCED
SWIMMERS CAN LOSE MUSCLE CONTROL DUE TO THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES.
IN THE DESERT, THERE IS A 75 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGHS OF AT
LEAST 95 DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
HAVE A 10 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF HITTING TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE
DESERT DESPITE SATURDAY'S 95 DEGREE PROBABILITIES LOWERING TO
55 TO 80 DEGREES. THE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO LOWER ON SUNDAY
TO A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 95 DEGREES.
LATEST ENSEMBLES AGREE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THINGS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A
75 TO 85 PERCENT CHANCE ON SATURDAY AND 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
ON SUNDAY OF HIGHS TO HIT 90 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY. THE CPC
CONTINUE TO SEND STRONG SIGNALS OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS IN BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARMING AIR TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO A DECREASE IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT, HIGH SIERRA, AND COASTAL RANGE. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN 100- AND 1000-HR DEAD
FUEL MOISTURES AND AN INCREASE IN ERC IN THESE AREAS. RAPID
CURING OF FINE FUELS WILL BRING ABOUT SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED
GRASS FIRES. HOWEVER, LIVE FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS AND SIGNIFICANT WILDLAND FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS AT
LITTLE OR NO RISK.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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