384
FXUS66 KHNX 161802
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1102 AM PDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHALLENGED THIS WEEK.
3. PRACTICE COLD WATER SAFETY, AS WATERWAYS WILL BE RUNNING COLD AND
FAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEK, BRINGING POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE LIKELY TO
REACH 90 DEGREES BY TUESDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE VALLEY SEEING A
60-80% CHANCE FOR THAT TEMPERATURE. THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
ON FRIDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR 95 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY AT 40-60%
THAT DAY. THIS HEAT STARTING ON TUESDAY IS AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
ARE ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL
LIKELY SEE A SIMILAR DEGREE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LIKELY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 90'S BY FRIDAY, WITH A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR HITTING TRIPLE DIGITS.
IN TANDEM WITH THESE RECORD TEMPERATURES, RIVERS WILL LIKELY SEE
INCREASED RUN-OFF FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO RAPID SNOW-MELT
AS LOW TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO RIVERS RUNNING MUCH COLDER THAN
THE OUTSIDE AIR, WHICH CAN BE DANGEROUS TO SWIM IN. USE CAUTION
WHILE SWIMMING IN THE RIVERS DURING THIS TIME, AND ALWAYS WEAR A
LIFE VEST.
ENSEMBLE MODELS FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST ARE INDICATING THE
RIDGE FLATTENING OUT INTO ZONAL FLOW BY MID NEXT WEEK, LEADING
TO DECREASING TEMPERATURES, BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. CURRENT CPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO PUT THE SOUTHWEST IN
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR DAYS 6-10 AND 8-14.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARMING AIR TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO A DECREASE IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT, HIGH SIERRA, AND COASTAL RANGE. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN 100- AND 1000-HR DEAD
FUEL MOISTURES AND AN INCREASE IN ERC IN THESE AREAS. RAPID
CURING OF FINE FUELS WILL BRING ABOUT SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED
GRASS FIRES. HOWEVER, LIVE FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS AND SIGNIFICANT WILD FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS AT
LITTLE OR NO RISK.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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