501
FXUS66 KHNX 180507
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1007 PM PDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHALLENGED THIS WEEK.
3. PRACTICE COLD WATER SAFETY, AS WATERWAYS WILL BE RUNNING COLD AND
FAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
A FEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN OR TIED ON MONDAY AS
HIGHS IN BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO REACHED 90 DEGREES AND HANFORD
REACHED 89 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
85 TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGHS OF AT LEAST 90 THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH ENSURES THAT MORE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. THE
CONTINUING WARMUP IS THANKS TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO MOVE ONSHORE AND STRENGTHENING. IN THE DESERT,
PROBABILITIES SLOWLY CLIMB FOR HIGHS OF AT LEAST 95 DEGREES TO A
PEAK OF 85 TO 95 PERCENT ON FRIDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 10 TO
40 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST PROBABILITIES BACK OFF ON SATURDAY IN THE
VALLEY TO A 65 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGHS HITTING 90 DEGREES.
THE PROBABILITIES DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND A ZONAL
PATTERN TAKES OVER ALOFT. EVEN THE DESERT PARTS OF KERN COUNTY
WILL SEE A COOLDOWN WITH A 55 TO 85 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGHS OF
AT LEAST 90 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE 6-10 AND
8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND BOTH OUTLOOKS HAVE A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARMING AIR TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO A DECREASE IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT, HIGH SIERRA, AND COASTAL RANGE. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN 100- AND 1000-HR DEAD
FUEL MOISTURES AND AN INCREASE IN ERC IN THESE AREAS. RAPID
CURING OF FINE FUELS WILL BRING ABOUT SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED
GRASS FIRES. HOWEVER, LIVE FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS AND SIGNIFICANT WILD FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS AT
LITTLE OR NO RISK.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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