221
FXUS66 KHNX 070621
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1121 PM PDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES VALID
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
2. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
3. THE RISK FOR FIRE STARTS REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO LOWER HUMIDITIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
4. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER AS PRECIPITATION, WINDS,
AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING IN OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. IN CONTRAST WITH THE
RECENT HIGH PRESSURE IN MID-MARCH, THIS IS A WEAKER RIDGE AND
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 85
DEGREES, ALBEIT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MOJAVE DESERT
EXCEEDING THIS THRESHOLD. WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY DESCEND ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE TEHACHAPI RANGE NOW THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM
WIND GUSTS ON TUESDAY HAVE A 70 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY TO
EXCEED 45 MPH, WITH AN 80 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY ON
WEDNESDAY.
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE WEST COAST, PUSHING WARM, MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO CALIFORNIA
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. BEGINNING FRIDAY, THERE IS A 20 TO
30 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS TO EXCEED
ONE- TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, WITH THESE
PROBABILITIES ENDING SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE
ABOVE 7,500 FEET - A SLIGHT DOWNTREND FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS -
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM EXPRESSES A 60 TO 70 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOWFALL AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD WHILE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP WITH THE
APPROACHING MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT CHANCES STAND AT 5 TO 15 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY, BUT ELEVATE TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT ON FRIDAY, AND ONLY
BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
FUEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ON THE DOWNTREND THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE
TO WARMING TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
THIS ESPECIALLY RINGS TRUE FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT WHERE MINRH
VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG
WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THIS AREA CAN HELP SPREAD
POTENTIAL FIRES. THE LOW RH VALUES WILL EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA, BEING BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT TUESDAY, BUT IMPROVING ABOVE 30 PERCENT STARTING
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WILL
HELP RAISE RH VALUES, BUT ALSO BRINGS THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING-
INDUCED FIRES FROM POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MAINTAINED FROM YESTERDAY, WITH
THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE INITIAL DAY OF STORMS, CURRENTLY
SITTING BETWEEN 5 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA. FRIDAY BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES AT 15 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ338.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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