935
FXUS66 KHNX 072309
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
409 PM PDT TUE APR 7 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES AND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIND ADVISORY FOR MOJAVE SLOPES AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
LAKE ISABELLA VALID THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
2. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
3. THE RISK FOR FIRE STARTS REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO LOWER HUMIDITIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
4. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER AS PRECIPITATION, WINDS,
AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. IN CONTRAST TO THE RECORD WARM
HIGH PRESSURE EVENT IN MID- MARCH, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 85 DEGREES, ALBEIT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE MOJAVE DESERT EXCEEDING THIS THRESHOLD.
RIDGING IN OUR AREA COMBINED WITH DOWNWIND TROUGHING TO OUR EAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD GUSTS FOR THE
MOJAVE SLOPES AND LAKE ISABELLA. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS HAVE A
70-80% PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 45 MPH THROUGH THE END OF TODAY,
WITH AN 80-90% PROBABILITY ON WEDNESDAY.
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLUSTERING
SUGGEST A WIDE RANGE OF 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION SOLUTIONS, VARYING
FROM 0.25"-2" IN THE SIERRA AND A TRACE TO 1" IN THE VALLEY, SO
FORECASTING IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE LATER THIS WEEK.
ENSEMBLE SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000 FT STEADILY DESCEND TO 7000 FT
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOCALLY TO 6500 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A 50-60% PROBABILITY FOR MORE THAN 6" OF SNOWFALL AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD
WHILE PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP WITH THE
APPROACHING MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT PROBABILITIES AT 5-15% ON THURSDAY
ELEVATE TO 25-30% ON FRIDAY AND ONLY BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR
SATURDAY TO 20-25%.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTS >40 KTS
ACROSS THE MOJAVE SLOPE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
FUEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ON THE DOWNTREND THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE
TO WARMING TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
THIS ESPECIALLY RINGS TRUE FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT WHERE MINRH
VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG
WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THIS AREA CAN HELP SPREAD
POTENTIAL FIRES. THE LOW RH VALUES WILL EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA, BEING BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT TUESDAY, BUT IMPROVING ABOVE 30 PERCENT STARTING
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WILL
HELP RAISE RH VALUES, BUT ALSO BRINGS THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING-
INDUCED FIRES FROM POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MAINTAINED FROM YESTERDAY, WITH
THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE INITIAL DAY OF STORMS, CURRENTLY
SITTING BETWEEN 5 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA. FRIDAY BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES AT 25 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2
IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ338.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ332.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...ND
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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