378
FXUS66 KHNX 080637
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1137 PM PDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIND ADVISORY FOR MOJAVE SLOPES AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
LAKE ISABELLA VALID THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
2. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
3. THE RISK FOR FIRE STARTS REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO LOWER HUMIDITIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
4. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER AS PRECIPITATION, WINDS,
AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A TRANSITION IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, GOING FROM A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE DOWNSTREAM PORTION OF AN APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY
COOLER COMPARED TO THE OTHER TWO DAYS DUE TO AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THURSDAY BRINGS THE FIRST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, HOWEVER ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT FROM THE NBM PLACES ONLY A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (>0.01") FOR THE NORTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY, AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE CENTRAL SIERRA
NEVADA. PROBABILITIES JUMP SIGNIFICANTLY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING A 60 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
ONE-TENTH OR MORE FOR THE VALLEY AREAS, AND 70 TO 80 PERCENT FOR
THE SIERRA.
WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE BEING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST, WARM MOSITURE-RICH AIR WILL BE ENTRAINING OVER ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AS STATED ABOVE, AND THERE WILL BE ENSUING
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SITS AT 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FRIDAY BEING IN THE NORTH
VALLEY AND NEARBY FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS; SATURDAY EXPANDS
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO ALSO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
FOOTHILLS. ANY CONVECTIVE STORM CAN RESULT IN GREATER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS THAN THOSE LISTED ABOVE.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM SITS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY, THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A SECOND
CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DROP FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
PHASE WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM. THE COLDER ORIGINS OF THE SECOND
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO FALL FURTHER THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT, NOW PROJECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 6,500 AND 7,000 FEET ON
SATURDAY. THIS, PAIRED WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL IN THE SIERRA NEVADA,
ESPECIALLY ABOVE THESE SNOW LEVELS. TOWARDS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PEAKS, THERE IS A 60 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY TO
EXCEED SIX INCHES FOR THE TWO-DAY TIME FRAME ENDING MONDAY
MORNING.
THE BACK-TO-BACK SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE ELEVATED WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
RANGE, AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND THE MOJAVE DESERT.
MAXIMUM GUSTS FOR THE LATTER TWO OF THESE HAVE A 70 TO 80
PERCENT PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 45 MPH ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTS ABOVE 40
KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOJAVE SLOPES IN THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TEHACHAPI RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE DOWNTREND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. THIS ESPECIALLY RINGS TRUE FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT
WHERE MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE WEEK IN THIS AREA CAN
HELP SPREAD POTENTIAL FIRES. MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK WILL HELP RAISE RH VALUES, BUT ALSO BRINGS THE
RISK FOR LIGHTNING- INDUCED FIRES FROM POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS THURSDAY WHICH
CURRENTLY SITS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES AT 15 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ338.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ332.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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