315
FXUS66 KHNX 121619
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
919 AM PDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. THUNDERSTORM RISK TODAY, WITH LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
2. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM SUNDAY
FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 7,000 FEET.
3. WIND ADVISORY FOR MOJAVE SLOPES THROUGH 11 PM SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ASHORE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS THIS HAPPENS, THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. MODEST CAPE, AMPLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE,
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE NEARING 7
C/KM WILL MEAN ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS COULD POSE A SMALL
HAIL RISK IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A 40-50% PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, DECREASING TO 10-20% IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER BURN SCARS WILL POSE A LOW TO
MODERATE RISK OF FLOODING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE FRENCH BURN
SCAR. IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7,000 FT, A WINTER STORM WARNING
CONTINUES UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF AN
ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN MOUNTAIN AREAS NORTH OF
TULARE COUNTY. MEANWHILE, A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY. A LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND LIGHTNING WILL PERSIST MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES OF 10-20%.
AS THE TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BE A DRIER SYSTEM, BUT A LIGHTNING RISK ON THURSDAY APPEARS
POSSIBLE, WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE CONTINUOUS TROUGHING OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH LOCAL MVFR AND IFR IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN THE
MOJAVE DESERT.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ338.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ323-
326>328-330-331.
PUBLIC...AC
AVIATION....CM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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