369
FXUS66 KHNX 131122
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
420 AM PDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
2. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.
3. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BY NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TOMORROW, CONTINUED LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND THE FOOTHILLS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 20 TO 25% CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, AND A
10 TO 20% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEY INTO THE
FOOTHILLS FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND THE DYNAMICS
OF THE TROUGH CENTERED TO THE NORTH. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS
WILL HAVE THE RISK OF LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO TUESDAY, THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS REDUCES SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARMING TREND
AS A NEW RIDGE BUILDS INTO ITS PLACE, AS WELL AS A DRYING TREND
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO GET CLOSE TO OUR AREA AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA
BORDER, LEADING TO A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE TOP
OF YOSEMITE NP, BUT WILL MOST LIKELY CAUSE STRONG WINDS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOJAVE DESERT
SLOPES.
WARMING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND
AS ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER THE PATTERN ALOFT. LOOKING INTO THE
LONG TERM, THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION BY NEXT MONDAY, WITH CURRENT CHANCES
FOR A TENTH OF A INCH OF RAINFALL AT 10-30% FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND LESS THAN 15% FOR THE VALLEY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THAT THIS TROUGH COMES IN AT A DIFFERENT LOCATION OR TILT,
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, AS INDICATED BY THE CURRENT
ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH LOCAL MVFR AND IFR IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECTED TO
BEGIN FORMING BY 18Z MONDAY. WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KNTS
IN THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES BETWEEN 21Z MON AND 06Z TUE.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
EW/MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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