303
FXUS66 KHNX 292205
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
305 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. 5-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
2. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY
3. A CLOSED-LOW ENTERS OUR AREA NEXT WEEK, WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITY FOR WEATHER IMPACTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
CALM AND PEACEFUL SPRING WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA. UPSLOPE FORCING COMBINED
WITH A WEAK MOISTURE INFLUENCE FROM A CLOSED-LOW OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA STILL PROVIDES SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS FOR A
5-10% PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER 10-15% PROBABILITY THURSDAY ONWARD.
NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WEEK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA STARTING THURSDAY,
BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A 50-60%
PROBABILITY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 90
DEGREES IN THE WESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, WITH THESE
PROBABILITIES EXTENDING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 70-80% FOR
SYNOPTICTHE VALLEY PORTIONS OF KERN COUNTY.
STARTING NEXT WEEK, CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
CLOSED-LOW ENTERING THE CWA, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
WEATHER IMPACTS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE EXPECTED
SCENARIO FAVORS PRECIPITATION FOR THE SIERRA NEVADAS, A HIGHER-
END SCENARIO EXTENDS THESE CONDITIONS TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY, TOTAL RAINFALL OF ONE HALF TO THREE FOURTHS
AN INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADAS, WITH 2-3"
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ABOVE 7,000 FEET. THERE IS ALSO A 40-50%
PROBABILITY FOR MEASUREABLE RAINFALL (>0.01") ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY.
IN A WORST-CASE SCENARIO, THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA WILL
BRING TOTAL RAINFALL ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND >1" FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SIERRA
NEVADAS ALONGSIDE TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 6-8" ABOVE 7,000 FEET.
DURING THESE WORST-CASE THUNDERSTORMS, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...ND
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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