898
FXUS66 KHNX 300636
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1136 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. 5-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
2. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY
3. A CLOSED-LOW ENTERS OUR AREA NEXT WEEK, WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITY FOR WEATHER IMPACTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, A CUTOFF LOW IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL FULLY PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE CUTOFF LOW COMBINING
WITH INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING FROM THE NORTH
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TOMORROW AFTERNOON; CHANCES STAND AT 10
TO 15 PERCENT FOR THESE AREAS. FOR FRIDAY, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN WITH A 50 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. WHILE THERE ARE SIMILAR PROBABILITIES IN THE
SOUTH VALLEY AREAS ON SATURDAY, THEY ARE NOT AS WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE VALLEY AS IN PREVIOUS DAY'S MODEL RUNS. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS PLACING THE UPCOMING STRONGER
CUTOFF LOW CLOSER TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLIER AND BEGINNING
LATE SATURDAY.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT HAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LAST MONTH, THIS WILL BE THE AREAS
NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY TO RECEIVE PRECIPITATION. THOUGH FOR NOW,
THE PRECIPITATION APPEARS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA NEVADA
AND PORTIONS OF THE SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MORE THAN
ONE-TENTH INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA.
SNOW LEVELS ARE PROJECTED BETWEEN 7,000 AND 8,000 FEET, WITH A
60 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR ONE INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL
ABOVE THESE LEVELS. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THESE LEVELS AS CUTOFF LOW SYSTEMS ARE DIFFICULTY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IN THIS TIME FRAME. POTENTIAL
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM THE UPCOMING SYSTEM ALSO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT 15 TO 20 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND IN THE MOJAVE DESERT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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