219
FXUS66 KHNX 301810
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1110 AM PDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. 5-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
2. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY
3. A CLOSED-LOW ENTERS OUR AREA NEXT WEEK, WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITY FOR WEATHER IMPACTS ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING THE REGION 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (5-15%)
IS PRESENT FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA STARTING TODAY AND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY (WHICH CURRENTLY HAS THE STRONGEST CHANCES).
WHILE THESE CHANCES ARE SMALL, ANY STRONG CELL THAT DEVELOPS MAY
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, RAISING THOSE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE 15-25% RANGE. THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY ON SUNDAY, WHICH COINCIDES
WITH THE CUT-OFF MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST AND TO THE LEEWARD SIDE OF
THE RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES IN TULARE COUNTY (VALUES OF 30-50% FOR 55 MPH
GUSTS ON SUNDAY). THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
DROP ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY, THOUGH THIS
COOLING TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AGAIN AND
WARMING BEGINS AGAIN BY TUESDAY.
A LATE SEASON CUT-OFF LOW LIKE THIS ONE MAY ALSO BE
UNDERESTIMATED BY THE CURRENT MODELING DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY BIAS,
SO THIS MAY BE A MORE ACTIVE EVENT THAN INDICATED AT THE MOMENT.
FURTHER RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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