422
FXUS66 KHNX 221821
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1121 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BRINGS AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF FIRE DANGER
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
2. WARMING TREND CONTINUES UNTIL SATURDAY, WITH A LOWERING
TREND SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
3. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND AREA LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS AS
WATER IS STILL RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG THE US WEST COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
TODAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 60-80%
PROBABILITY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT, LOWERING
TO A 20-30% PROBABILITY BY SATURDAY.
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DIURNAL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL BRING A 10-15% PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST TODAY. LIKEWISE, THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20% PROBABILITY FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE
HIGHEST POINT OF THE CREST WHERE OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT IS MAXIMIZED.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
TUESDAY AND BRINGS A LOW (20-30%) PROBABILITY FOR MEASUREABLE
PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST 0.1") OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE TYPICAL PRONE AREAS, SUCH AS THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST AND THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES. FOR NOW, THE PROBABILITY OF
A 40 MPH GUST IN THESE AREAS IS AT 30-40% ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A WARMING TREND SOON FOLLOWS BY LATE NEXT WEEK, AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PROBABILITY (>75%) FOR 15 KTS NORTHWEST GUSTS PREVAILING ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT AREAS
BETWEEN 23Z 05/22 TO 06Z 05/23.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (<20%) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST MOVING AND DEVELOPING
GRASS AND BRUSH FIRES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING
AVAILABLE FUELS. WINDS WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE. POOR TO
MODERATE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...ND
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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