568
FXUS66 KHNX 231215
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
515 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BRINGS AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF FIRE DANGER
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
2. WARMING TREND CONTINUES UNTIL SATURDAY, WITH A LOWERING
TREND SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
3. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND AREA LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS AS
WATER IS STILL RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. WHILE THE PASSAGE
OF A DISTURBANCE WILL TARGET THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE INCREASE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF COOLER
MARINE AIR INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WILL SEE A SLOW DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WITH A SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE PUSH OF COOLER AIR,
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WILL EXIST TO GENERATE STRONG WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL RANGE. IN ADDITION, PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE)
OF REACHING 95F DEGREES IS ONLY AT 10 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SATURDAY. AFTERWARD, POE OF REACHING 95F
DEGREE FALLS BELOW 10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, POE OF 90F
DEGREES WILL RANGE FROM 20-50 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PERCENTAGES OVER SOUTHWEST KERN COUNTY. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GO INTO A COOLING TREND WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 90F DEGREES BY TUESDAY. AT
WHICH TIME, POE OF REACHING 90F DEGREES FALLS BELOW 10 PERCENT.
LITTLE RECOVERY WILL BE SEEN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DURING THIS TIME, A VERY SLIGHT CHANCES (5-10 PERCENT) OF
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST AND REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST
POINTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE.
WITH THESE WARMING TEMPERATURES, WATER WAYS WILL BE RUNNING
COLD. EXERCISE CAUTION AROUND LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS AS EVEN
THE MOST EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS CAN LOSE DEXTERITY IN COLD WATER.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVIATION....MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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