255
FXUS66 KHNX 241147
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
447 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE FIRE WEATHER RISK TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
2. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS, AS WATER
IS STILL RUNNING COLD.
3. OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES PLEASANT BUT ALLOW
FOR DRY LIGHTNING CHANCES IN THE SIERRA NEVADA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BEING REPLACED WITH A ZONAL
(STRONG WESTERLY) FLOW PATTERN. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE ABLE
TO REACH INTO THE 90S THIS SATURDAY, THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING
90F-DEG WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT ON SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE ON
MEMORIAL DAY. LATEST PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING
90F-DEG RANGES FROM 50 TO 80 PERCENT ALONG AN AREA AROUND
INTERSTATE 5 FROM COALINGA TO SOUTHWEST OF BAKERSFIELD. BY
MONDAY, POE WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE SAME
GENERAL AREA AROUND THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
WITH FURTHER INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WILL SEE
ADDITIONAL COOLING AS POE OF REACHING 90F-DEG FALLS BELOW 10
PERCENT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AIR-MASS WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH POE RISING ABOVE 10 PERCENT BY
FRIDAY.
WITH A SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE PUSH OF COOLER AIR, ENOUGH OF A
GRADIENT WILL EXIST TO GENERATE STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
RANGE. CURRENT POE OF REACHING 30 MPH SITS AT AROUND 10 TO 20
PERCENT OVER THE HILLS WEST OF INTERSTATE-5 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE WESTERLY WILL BE REPLACED WITH A
CLOSED LOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS ADDITIONAL
MARINE AIR SURGES ASHORE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL EXIST
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS STRONG WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, TEHACHAPI AND COASTAL RANGE. THE
AFFECTS FELT OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
THE INCREASED WEST WIND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. ENSEMBLES KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
NEAR THE CREST AND TAPER PERCENTAGES TO NEAR ZERO OVER AREAS
BELOW 5,000 FEET. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES SHOW SIMILAR VALUES
OVER SIMILAR LOCATIONS TO THAT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
WHILE TEMPERATURES AREA STILL WARM DURING THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
WATER WAYS WILL BE RUNNING COLD. EXERCISE CAUTION AROUND LAKES,
RIVERS, AND STREAMS AS EVEN THE MOST EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS CAN
LOSE DEXTERITY IN COLD WATER.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVIATION....MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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