020
FXUS66 KHNX 131800
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
UNTIL 11 PM TUESDAY.
2. WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISK, INCLUDING TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT,
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
POCKETS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK, PARTICULARLY NEAR URBAN AREAS.
3. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE INCREASED FIRE RISK IN
EASTERN KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND.
4, CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WHICH MAY INCLUDE DRY LIGHTNING.
5. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS, AS WATER
IS STILL RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA’S HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THIS SATURDAY. WHILE
ENSEMBLE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD A
MORE ZONAL FLOW (WESTERLIES) OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THIS
SHIFT IS SHOWING MINIMAL CHANGES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THEREFORE, WILL SEE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN-PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT ENSEMBLE SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS HAS PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY (SJV) TEMPERATURES
REACHING 100 DEG IN THE 75 TO 95 PERCENT RANGE (WITH HIGHER
PERCENTAGE VALUES OVER THE KERN COUNTY PORTION OF THE SJV).
THESE PERCENTAGES WILL BE THE EXPECTED VALUES FROM THIS SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. YET, THE POE OF 105
DEG IS ONLY 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE SJV FOR THE SAME PERIOD. THEREFORE, WITH THE 75TH
AND 90TH PERCENTILES IN THE 102-106 DEG RANGE ACROSS THE SJV,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE POE OF REACHING 100 DEG ON THURSDAY
DOES SHOW A DROP-OFF AS PERCENTAGES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT
VALLEY-WIDE.
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOWS A CLOSED LOW ATTEMPTING TO
CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR A POSSIBLE THREAT OF
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A
COOL-DOWN AND STRONGER WINDS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE
DISTRICT. BEFOREHAND, AN AREA OF WEAKNESS WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA (CENTERED ALONG THE COAST) WITH WEAK LIFT AND SOME SURGE OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT TO GENERATE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. ENSEMBLE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES DO
SHOW AN UP-TICK IN PERCENTAGES ALONG THE SIERRA CREST NEAR
YOSEMITE ON SUNDAY (COMPARED TO TODAY) AND AGAIN OF THURSDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SURFACE WIND G25KTS WILL HAVE A 30-40 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OVER KERN COUNTY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ300>321-332.
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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