623
FXUS66 KHNX 020618
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1118 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY FOR WEST SIDE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF 198 AND SAN LUIS RESERVOIR.
2. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CREATE ELEVATED FIRE RISK THIS
WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOJAVE DESERT.
3. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
4. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND LAKES, RIVERS AND STREAMS, AS WATER
IS STILL RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
THE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT HAS PRIMARILY DOMINATED THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK IS SLOWLY STARTING TO WEAKEN
ACROSS THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND
FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MAINTAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASON AVERAGES THURSDAY DUE TO CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
INFLUENCE, BUT WILL RETURN TO AVERAGES BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, THERE IS LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 95 DEGREES THURSDAY, BUT
THESE PROBABILITIES RISE TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON FRIDAY, THEN 80
TO 90 PERCENT ON SATURDAY. AN PERIOD OF INSIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
SCALE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASON AVERAGES AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME, THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SAN LUIS RESERVOIR AS THE WINDS
NAVIGATE THROUGH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN. WEST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH REMAIN EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA AND THERE
IS A 70 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS TO
EXCEED 30 MPH EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE IN THE MOJAVE DESERT IN THE LEE OF THE TEHACHAPI
RANGE, HOWEVER THERE IS ONLY A 40 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
GUSTS TO EXCEED 30 MPH AT MOJAVE EACH DAY.
THE CONTINUED FLOW OVER THE REGION AND WARMING TREND WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOW, WITH MINIMUMS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY
ANTICIPATED AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. DESERT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT, WITH SIERRA VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25
PERCENT. GRASS FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS ELEVATED IN AREAS WHERE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS PAIR WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITIES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ300.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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