134
FXUS66 KHNX 031625
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
925 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR WEST SIDE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF 198 AND SAN LUIS RESERVOIR THROUGH 11 PM PDT SATURDAY,
JULY 4TH, BEWARE OF UNSETTLED WATERS.
2. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CREATE ELEVATED FIRE RISK INTO NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOJAVE DESERT.
3. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
THEN A WARMING TREND OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
4. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND LAKES, RIVERS AND STREAMS, AS WATER
IS STILL RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AT THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
KERN COUNTY DESERT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN U.S., ALTHOUGH WITH A ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ALOFT AT TIMES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMUP IN
TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH DIURNAL WINDS REMAINING BREEZY TOWARDS
THE COASTAL RANGES AND WEST SIDE HILLS. WILL KEEP THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR SAN LUIS RESERVOIR AND NEARBY AREAS UNTIL 11 PM
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
CHANCES FOR 25 MPH GUSTS REMAIN AT 50-60 PERCENT FOR THIS
PARTICULAR AREA DURING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
ACCORDING TO LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES AND
LEE SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. IN ADDITION, A 10-15
PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST, MAINLY NORTH OF
FRESNO COUNTY. OTHERWISE, A DRY PATTERN PREVAILS WITH LOW
DAYTIME HUMIDITY IN MANY LOCATIONS, INCLUDING NEAR 10 PERCENT
MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE MOJAVE DESERT AND TEENS AND LOWER 20S
FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA IN TULARE
COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE LOW HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
BREEZES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK EACH
DAY.
HEAT BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS. PROBABILITIES
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 DEGREES RISE TO 10-20 PERCENT IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY INDEPENDENCE DAY AND 50-60 PERCENT IN
THE MOJAVE DESERT IN EASTERN KERN COUNTY. THE CHANCES LOWER A
BIT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT RISE BACK TO 15-25 PERCENT BY
TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND 70-80 PERCENT FOR THE MOJAVE
DESERT. THE UPWARD TREND IN PROBABILITIES WILL LAST THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND. WE SEE LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD, OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON HIGH SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH
THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS. THE CPC ALSO CONTINUES TO
MENTION A MODERATE RISK OF HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES FOR JULY
12-15TH OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA WITH A SLIGHT RISK ON THE 10TH
UNTIL THE 16TH. BASICALLY, THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER, AND IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FURTHER, WE ARE LOOKING AT THE HOTTEST PERIOD OF THE
YEAR SO FAR.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SLIGHT (10-15%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST DEVIL'S POSTPILE AND NORTH 21Z FRI-03Z SAT.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ300.
BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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