301
FXUS66 KHNX 040456
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
956 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR WEST SIDE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF 198 AND SAN LUIS RESERVOIR THROUGH 11 PM PDT SATURDAY,
JULY 4TH, BEWARE OF UNSETTLED WATERS.
2. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CREATE ELEVATED FIRE RISK INTO NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOJAVE DESERT.
3. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
THEN A WARMING TREND OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
4. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND LAKES, RIVERS AND STREAMS, AS WATER
IS STILL RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WEST (AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA) IS SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHIFT IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FORCE THE
WESTERLIES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND MORE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THAN, WILL SEE MAX
TEMPERATURES STAY AT NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AND STAY BELOW 100
DEGREES.
BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE)
OF REACHING 100 DEGREES REMAINS BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY (SJV). BY TUESDAY, POE OF REACHING 100 DEGREES
RISES ABOVE 15 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTH END OF THE SJV WITH A
STEADY RISE IN POE FROM MID-WEEK INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. WEDNESDAY IS SHOWING POE PERCENTAGES ABOVE 20 PERCENT OVER
A WIDER AREA OF THE SJV WITH THE MOJAVE DESERT REACHING AND
GOING ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOW POE IN THE
60-80 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE SOUTH VALLEY WITH THE NORTH VALLEY
IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. THEREFORE, WHILE THE SOUTH VALLEY
SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THE CENTURY MARK, SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXIST OVER THE NORTH VALLEY. EVEN MORE, WHILE
THE MOJAVE DESERT SHOWS A POE OF REACHING 105 DEGREES IN THE
50-80 PERCENT RANGE, THE SJV ONLY SHOWS POE OF 105 DEGREES ABOVE
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY PORTION OF THE VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING MAX
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.
WE SEE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD, OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGH SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS SHOWING AS MUCH AS
15 PERCENT ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WITH LOWER VALUES NEAR 5
PERCENT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS DOWN TO 7,000 FEET. OTHERWISE, MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH
THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS. THE CPC ALSO CONTINUES TO
MENTION A MODERATE RISK OF HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES FOR JULY
12-15TH OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA WITH A SLIGHT RISK ON THE 10TH
UNTIL THE 16TH. BASICALLY, THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER, AND IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FURTHER, WE ARE LOOKING AT THE HOTTEST PERIOD OF THE
YEAR SO FAR.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SLIGHT CHANCE (NEAR 5%) OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA CREST FROM FRESNO COUNTY, NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20Z SATURDAY
AND 03Z SUNDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ300.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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