985
FXUS66 KHNX 050400
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
900 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR WEST SIDE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF 198 AND SAN LUIS RESERVOIR THROUGH 11 PM PDT SUNDAY,
JULY 5TH, BEWARE OF UNSETTLED WATERS.
2. WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THE CALIFORNIA WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA
NEVADA CREST ON SUNDAY.
3. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CREATE ELEVATED FIRE RISK INTO
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOJAVE DESERT.
4. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
THEN A WARMING TREND OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
5. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND LAKES, RIVERS AND STREAMS, AS WATER
IS STILL RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS, WILL SEE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SURGE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH A POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE TOO WEAK
FOR LOWER ELEVATION CONVECTION, OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL
PROVIDE THE ADDITIONAL LIFT TO MAINTAIN MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL
KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG WIND BLOW THROUGH PACHECO PASS.
BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE)
OF REACHING 100 DEGREES REMAINS BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY (SJV) THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, POE OF
REACHING 100 DEGREES RISES ABOVE 25 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTH END OF
THE SJV WITH A STEADY RISE IN POE FROM MID-WEEK INTO THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOJAVE DESERT QUICKLY HITS TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES AS POE OF 100 DEGREES REACHING ABOVE 90 PERCENT BY
TUESDAY. POE ONLY GOES UP FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
TRIPLE DIGITS WILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SJV AND MOJAVE DESERT. DURING THIS PERIOD, ENSEMBLE SJV
TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS PLACES THE 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES BETWEEN
102 AND 107 DEGREES. ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE PLACES HIGHS
CLOSER TO 100 DEGREES THIS THAT TIME FRAME.
WE SEE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD, OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGH SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS SHOWING AS MUCH AS
15 PERCENT ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WITH LOWER VALUES NEAR 5
PERCENT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS DOWN TO 7,000 FEET. OTHERWISE, MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS. THEY'RE
ALSO FAVORING OF LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (33-50% CHANCE) AS
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH FROM MONSOON ORIGINS. THIS TREND IS
INDICATED IN BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE, THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORM AND ALLOW
FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE CPC IS ALSO
HIGHLIGHTING A SLIGHT RISK (20-40%)FOR HAZARDOUS TEMPS FROM THE
11TH THROUGH THE 17TH, WITH THE 12TH THROUGH THE 15TH BEING A
MODERATE RISK (40-60%).
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SLIGHT CHANCE (10-15%) OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST FROM TULARE COUNTY NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20Z SUNDAY AND 03Z
MONDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ300.
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVIATION....AC
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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