100
FXUS66 KHNX 052350
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
450 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR WEST SIDE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF 198 AND SAN LUIS RESERVOIR THROUGH 11 PM PDT SUNDAY,
JULY 5TH, BEWARE OF UNSETTLED WATERS.
2. WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THE CALIFORNIA WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA
NEVADA CREST ON SUNDAY.
3. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CREATE ELEVATED FIRE RISK INTO
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOJAVE DESERT.
4. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
THEN A WARMING TREND OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
5. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND LAKES, RIVERS AND STREAMS, AS WATER
IS STILL RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
THERE IS A SMALL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY
THAT HAS BROUGHT MORNING SHOWERS TO MANY CITIES WITHIN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY (SJV). THEY'RE BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH AND OUT
OF THE CWA NOW, BUT IT WAS A WELCOMED SIGHT. BY NOON, THE CLOUD
COVER WILL RECEDE AND WE'LL BE BACK TO SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE
CENTRAL VALLEY AND BE OUT OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AS IT MOVES THROUGH, IT'S BRINGING SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST. TODAY, THERE IS AN 18%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE 9,000FT. THERE EXISTS A 5-15%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOOTHILLS UP TO 7,000FT, WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AS ELEVATION INCREASES.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SET UP
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS IN TURN WILL SET UP FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SJV. CURRENTLY, THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 100 DEGREES IN SJV IS LESS THAN
20% ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE POE IS 21% FOR BAKERSFIELD, BUT
LESS THAN 10% FOR THE REST OF THE SJV. THESE PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEING THE TIME OF HIGHEST PERCENTAGES, THUS THE HOTTEST DAYS OF
THE WEEK. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID-100'S, BUT THERE EXISTS A 10% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE 107-109 DEGREE RANGE. BECAUSE OF THESE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO INCREASE, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE
(LEVEL 2) HEATRISK. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3)
HEATRISK POTENTIAL (22% CHANCE) IN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
THE CPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS. WITH BOTH THESE OUTLOOKS, THEY'RE
ALSO FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THANKS TO MONSOONAL
INFLUENCE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLIGHT RISK (20-40%) FOR
HAZARDOUS TEMPS FROM THE 13TH-19TH, WITH THE 13TH-17TH BEING A
MODERATE RISK (40-60%). SUFFICE TO SAY THAT WE ARE BEGINNING TO
ENTER THE HOTTEST PORTION OF THE YEAR.
AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE AND PEOPLE SEEK OUT WAYS TO COOL
OFF, PLEASE REMEMBER THAT RUNNING STREAMS, RIVERS AND LAKES WILL
BE COLDER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURE. FOLLOW ALL POSTED SIGNAGE
AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ADVICE REGARDING WATERWAYS. EXERCISE COLD
WATER SAFETY, AS EVEN THE MOST EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS CAN LOSE
DEXTERITY IN COLD WATER.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE (10-15%) OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST FROM TULARE COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL 03Z MONDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ300.
PUBLIC...BB/AVIATION....CMOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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