401
FXUS66 KHNX 220554
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1054 PM PDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
2. EXTREME HEAT WATCH ISSUED FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT AND INDIAN
WELLS VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAJOR HEATRISK EXPECTED
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 108 TO 112 EACH DAY.
3. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASON AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT IN PLACE AND IS
NOT LIKELY TO MOVE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THAT TIME AND
LIKELY INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN
WE'VE BEEN SEEING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME
MORE WESTERLY BY THURSDAY, BUT BEFORE THEN, THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, THOUGH WITH SMALLER CHANCES COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON AT 15-25%. THESE CHANCES ARE ALSO MAINLY AROUND MT.
WHITNEY AND TO THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE RANGE TOWARDS NEVADA.
AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK WEST, THE MOJAVE DESERT IS
EXPECTED TO SEE HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON AND WARM LOWS
OVERNIGHT. THESE COMBINE TO MAKE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISK
WITH AREAS OF MAJOR RISK THAT ARE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF KERN COUNTY. THIS TYPE OF HEAT IS DANGEROUS TO MUCH OF
THE POPULATION, ESPECIALLY TO THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THESE POSSIBLE CONDITIONS, AN EXTREME HEAT
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
IN THAT AREA IS BETWEEN 108 AND 112 DEGREES. THIS WATCH WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY UPGRADED TO A WARNING BY TOMORROW DUE TO THE
CERTAINTY OF THESE HIGHS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS JUST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED MORE OVER THE
DESERT AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE VALLEY.
LOOKING TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, HOWEVER, THIS COULD CHANGE
AS THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE FURTHER WEST AND 500MB
HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO RISE OVER MORE OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA,
CAUSING AN UPTICK IN VALLEY TEMPERATURES. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER IS ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TILTS TOWARDS CALIFORNIA ON THE
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK WHEN COMPARED TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK,
EVEN AS BOTH INDICT A SIMILAR LIKELIHOOD FOR THOSE KINDS OF
HIGHS. THE 8 TO 14 DAY HAZARDS OUTLOOK ALSO HAS THE SLIGHT RISK
(20-40%) FOR HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES TAKE UP MORE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WELL AS INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY, WHEREAS
PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS HAD THE SLIGHT RISK CAPPED IN THE LOWER
VALLEY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ337-339.
EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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