066
FXUS66 KHNX 221946
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1246 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. EXTREME HEAT WARNING ISSUED FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT AND INDIAN
WELLS VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAJOR HEATRISK EXPECTED
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 108 TO 112 EACH DAY.
2. LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH LOWER PROBABILITIES EXIST COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
3. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASON AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH AND CENTERED ITSELF OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY.
THE CHANGE IN ORIENTATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS AFFECTED THE
SYNOPTIC-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY
CHANGING THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE RESULT IS PROVIDING THE REGION WITH LESS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND, THEREFORE, A LOWERED
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
REMAINS AROUND A 15 TO 25 PERCENT PROBABILITY TODAY, HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE BENIGN COMPARED TO TUESDAY, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK, THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE
FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, HOTTER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOJAVE DESERT. ON THURSDAY, THERE IS A 90
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 105
DEGREES. THEN, BEGINNING FRIDAY, THERE IS A 60 TO 70 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 110 DEGREES EACH DAY,
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY, INCLUDING
THE COMMUNITIES OF CHINA LAKE, INYOKERN, AND RIDGECREST. WITH AN
80 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED
80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY IN THIS AREA, THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT WITHOUT THE HELP OF AIR CONDITIONING AND A MAJOR
RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR MUCH OF THE POPULATION. THE
EXTREME HEAT WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
INDIAN WELLS VALLEY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
VALID FROM THURSDAY, JULY 23RD TO MONDAY, JULY 27TH.
THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE MONTH, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD, THERE IS AT
LEAST A 50 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH DAY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
CAZ337-339.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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