570
FXUS66 KHNX 231135
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
435 AM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. EXTREME HEAT WARNING ISSUED FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT AND INDIAN
WELLS VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAJOR HEATRISK EXPECTED
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 108 TO 112 EACH DAY.
2. A SMALL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST AGAIN
THIS FRIDAY, BUT THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WILL SEE
CHANCES LESS THAN 10%.
3. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASON AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE PATTERN OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT WHERE
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 108 TO 112 DEGREE RANGE
FROM TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT REGION FROM 8 AM TOMORROW
THROUGH 9 PM MONDAY. WHILE THE DESERT WILL BE SEEING THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES, THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS LIKELY TO SEE
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ITS POSITION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO CONTINUE TO APPEAR IN THE FORECAST,
THOUGH NOT AS STRONGLY AS SEEN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK.
CURRENT CHANCES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE 5-15%, WHILE TOMORROW
SEES SIMILAR CHANCES TO TODAY'S FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THAT
AMOUNTED TO LITTLE ACTUAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT, AS THE
RIDGE MIGRATES FURTHER WEST OVER THE COMING DAYS INTO NEXT WEEK,
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE CUT OFF AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES DIVE BELOW 5% BY SUNDAY. THIS MAY ALSO HOLD TRUE AS THE
CURRENT 500MB FORECAST SHOWS THE RIDGE CENTERED SQUARELY OVER
ARIZONA AND FLOW INTO THE VALLEY COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS FLOW PATTERN WOULD ALSO LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE
VALLEY, SIMILAR TO WHAT THE MOJAVE DESERT IS GOING TO SEE
THROUGH MONDAY. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE VALLEY FOR HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING A
HIGH RISK (>60%) FOR EXTREME HEAT ON JULY 30TH AND 31ST, AND THE
FIRST FEW DAYS IN AUGUST ARE UNDER THE MODERATE AND SLIGHT RISK
THROUGH THE 1ST AND 5TH RESPECTIVELY, WHICH IS A MARKED
INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE SINCE THE LAST FORECAST THEY ISSUED FOR
THE CONUS.
AVIATION
A 5-10% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST FROM 21Z TODAY THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
CAZ337-339.
EW/CM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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