914
FXUS66 KHNX 240550
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1050 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
INDIAN WELLS VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. MAJOR HEATRISK EXPECTED
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 108 TO 112 EACH DAY.
2. A SMALL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST AGAIN
THIS FRIDAY, BUT THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WILL SEE
CHANCES LESS THAN 10%.
3. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASON AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
BEFORE HOTTER CONDITIONS APPEAR LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS,
LEADING TO A BRIEF INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT MAY LEAD
TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THOUGH PREVIOUS
AFTERNOONS WITH SAID MOISTURE DID NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT CELLS.
BUT THE CURRENT CHANCES ARE 20-35% ALONG THE CREST, MAINLY IN
TULARE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN FRESNO COUNTY, SO THUNDERSTORMS MAY
STILL DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME. LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY,
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR TO DROP OFF A CLIFF (LESS THAN 10%
EACH AFTERNOON) AS THE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER WEST, CUTTING OFF
OUR AREA FROM INCOMING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST, TEMPERATURES IN THE DESERT WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, BUT MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATE
NEXT WEEK. AS FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY
FLUCTUATING AROUND 100 DEGREES, RISING ABOVE OR DROPPING BELOW
DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE. BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THE RIDGE TO MOVE FURTHER OVER ARIZONA AND INTO
EASTERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE NEXT WEEK, PLACING CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE, LEADING TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. CURRENT CHANCES FOR HIGHS IN THE VALLEY
OF 105 DEGREES FOR NEXT THURSDAY ARE 30-40% FROM FRESNO
SOUTHWARDS, INCREASING THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND TO 45-65%.
ALONG WITH THESE INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER HEAT
RISK, WITH THE VALLEY SEEING GROWING CHANCES FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK
BEGINNING ON NEXT THURSDAY AND INTO THAT WEEKEND, AS WELL.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST. THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER IS ALSO SEEING THIS PATTERN, AS THEY HAVE ALL
OF CALIFORNIA UNDER LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM DAY 6
THROUGH DAY 14, AS WELL AS HIGHLIGHTING THE VALLEY FOR A HIGH
RISK (>60%) FOR HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES ON JULY 31ST INTO AUGUST
1ST, AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK (20-40%) THROUGH THE 6TH OF
AUGUST.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ337-339.
EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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