534
FXUS66 KHNX 241747
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1047 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT AND INDIAN
WELLS VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. MAJOR HEATRISK EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS 108 TO 112 EACH DAY.
2. A SMALL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST AGAIN
TODAY, BUT THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WILL SEE CHANCES LESS
THAN 10%.
3. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASON AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
BEFORE HOTTER CONDITIONS APPEAR LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S., HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES HAVE A TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. THE CURRENT SETUP HAS SOME MOISTURE
STILL BEING ADVECTED IN BRINING A 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY. HOWEVER,
AS THAT TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE RIDGE, TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
DECREASE BUT WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF TRIPLE DIGITS
SOUTH OF MERCED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE EXTREME
HEAT WARNING CONTINUES WITH A 85 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGHS
OF AT LEAST 105 DEGREES.
THE RIDGE SLIDES WEST MONDAY INTO THE WORK WEEK AND WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO A WARMING TREND. LATEST PROBABILITIES SHOW
A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF A MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS BY NEXT FRIDAY. THIS BODES WELL WITH A 15 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF A HIGH OF 105 DEGREES SOUTH OF MERCED ON
THURSDAY AND A 25 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE OF 105 OR HIGHER ON
FRIDAY FOR THE ENTIRE VALLEY. CPC HAS MOST OF THE VALLEY IN THE
70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
A 10-25% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ337-339.
JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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