557
FXUS66 KHNX 251646
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
946 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
INDIAN WELLS VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAJOR HEATRISK
EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 108 TO 112 EACH DAY.
2. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASON AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
BEFORE HOTTER CONDITIONS APPEAR LATE NEXT WEEK.
3. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
GOOD SATURDAY MORNING FROM A RELATIVELY PEACEFUL SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT CIRRUS DECK
CROSSING OVER THE VALLEY NORTH OF KERN COUNTY, LIKELY SUPPORTED
BY A COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A HAPPY
LITTLE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON. PEAK
500MB HEIGHT APPROACHING 600 DECAMETERS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST US. LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODELING SHOWS THIS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ANOMALY STAYING NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. FOR US
HERE IN CALIFORNIA, BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING THE STRONGEST
PORTION OF THIS ANOMALY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY, THUS
GIVING CREDENCE TO MAINTAINING THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THE
KERN COUNTY DESERT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT (11PM PDT).
IN SPITE A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM EXTREME HEAT SET FOR NEXT
WORK WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE
STRONGEST CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DIRECTLY OVER CALIFORNIA
BY NEXT WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY, BOTH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER (CPC) AND WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) CURRENTLY
INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME HEAT ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TO START AUGUST. LATEST NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) GUIDANCE PINS MODERATE CONFIDENCE (50-60%
PROBABILITY) FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT (70-80% PROBABILITY) BY
FRIDAY.
WHILE STILL A WAYS AWAY, THE LATEST 10 DAY FORECAST INDICATES
THIS NEXT HEAT PUSH WILL BRING MID 100S TO THE SAN JOAQUIN AND
LOW TO MID 110S TO THE MOJAVE DESERT. COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 70S FOR THE FORMER AND 80S IN THE LATTER AREA, THIS
APPEARS ON TRACK FOR OUR NEXT HEAT ADVISORY PRODUCT. SHOULD A
MORE AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO TRACK, A REGION-WIDE EXTREME HEAT
PRODUCT EXTENDING UP TO THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
ON THE OTHER HAND, FAVORABLE SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
SOME LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES PINNED AT ABOUT 10-15% TODAY ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST. BY SUNDAY, PROBABILITY FALLS TO 5% AND LOWER,
UNTIL A SUBTLE MOISTURE INJECTION FROM MONSOON AIR CHANNELED BY
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE BUMP PROBABILITIES
SLIGHTLY TO 5-10% LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. FOR THE REST OF US,
HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
AVIATION
10-15% PROBABILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA CREST FROM 20Z SATURDAY THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ337-339.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...ND
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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