621
FXUS66 KHNX 271752
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1052 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT AND INDIAN
WELLS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAJOR HEATRISK EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS 102 TO 110 DEGREES.
2. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASON AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY.
3. WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH MAJOR HEAT RISK BY FRIDAY
FOR THE MOJAVE SLOPES AND DESERT AND BY THE WEEKEND IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY.
4. DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
EXTREME HEAT CONTINUES FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT, AS DOES ANOTHER
DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW
PROBABILITY (10-20%) FOR VALLEY TRIPLE DIGITS SOUTH OF MERCED,
WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY (50-75%) ALONG INTERSTATE 5 BETWEEN LOST
HILLS AND KETTLEMAN CITY. ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT, PROBABILITY
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 105 ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH
(60-80%) BETWEEN EDWARDS AFB AND CHINA LAKE, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS BELOW 3000 FEET ELEVATION. THUS, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING
FOR THE EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
9PM THIS EVENING.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CAUSING EXTREME
HEAT SLIDES EASTWARD, ALLOWING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN ON TUESDAY,
UNTIL GRADUALLY SLIDING BACK WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OVER
CALIFORNIA BY THIS WEEKEND. BY FRIDAY, NBM INDICATES 60-80%
PROBABILITY FOR VALLEY-WIDE HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 105,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF MERCED. THERE EXISTS LIKEWISE HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 110 ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT. COMBINED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR THE VALLEY
AND 80S FOR THE DESERT, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER PLACES
50-80% PROBABILITY FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
ALONG WITH THIS WARMUP, REGION-WIDE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY DROP. LATEST FORECAST INDICATES MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 5% IN THE MOJAVE DESERT AND 15% IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THOUGH WIND WILL
REMAIN DIURNAL AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN, THE COMBINED HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD GIVEN
SEASONABLY DRY AND CURED FUELS. FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BE
ISSUED IF EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK COURTESY OF THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PLACE OUR AREA LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH 60-70% PROBABILITY COVERING MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AS
OF THEIR LATEST OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ337-
339.
PUBLIC...ND
AVIATION....JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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