507
FXUS66 KHNX 111742
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1042 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND THE
NEXT REGIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.
2. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST
CONTINUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH 20-30%
PROBABILITY TODAY AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
3. POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES WITH CURED FUELS STILL REMAINS A
THREAT THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN INTRIGUING SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ESTABLISHING OVER CALIFORNIA:
COMBINED TROUGHING DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDING OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS BLOCKING
PATTERN AS IT WERE IS SET TO PUSH MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH (AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO A LESSER EXTENT) RIGHT INTO CALIFORNIA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING, THIS HAS
ALREADY BEGAN TO MANIFEST VIA GROWING STATUS AND CUMULUS CLOUD
COVER TRAVELING UP THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A FEW POPUP RAIN
SHOWERS LIKEWISE TRAVELING NORTH FROM THE VENTURA MOUNTAINS. FOR
THE REGION, THIS ALSO MEANS THE END OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON, MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
(APPROACHING 25-30% PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST) ARE SET TO BEGIN AFTER 11AM LOCAL TIME, WITH SLIGHTER
CHANCES (10-15%) ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY. THESE PROBABILITIES AND AREAL COVERAGE
ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING EVEN HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS PUSHES FURTHER EAST ON THURSDAY,
PROBABILITIES DROP TO BELOW 5% FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS, WITH WEDNESDAY'S ELEVATED PROBABILITIES STILL HOLDING
FOR THE SIERRA NEVADAS.
AS FOR THE RAINFALL OUTLOOK, THE MAIN COMPLICATIONS ARE TWO-
FOLD: MEDIOCRE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT, AND MARGINAL
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF TOPOGRAPHIC UPLIFT. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS, MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS UNLIKELY TO RECEIVE EVEN A TRACE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS CURRENTLY PLACED UNDER
10-25% PROBABILITY FOR A TRACE OR GREATER PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
PROBABILITIES APPROACHING 30-40% IN THE FOOTHILLS NORTH OF
TULARE COUNTY AND DOWNWIND OF THE SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS.
PROBABILITY OF A WETTING RAINFALL (TENTH OF AN INCH OR GREATER),
MEANWHILE, WILL STAY MORE LIKELY (>50%) ABOVE 6,000 IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA, APPROACHING 70% ALONG THE CREST. THE BEST TIMING
ALSO APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, WETTING RAINFALL ALONG
AND DOWNWIND THE SAN EMIGDIOS IS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PROBABILITIES
APPROACHING 70% ALONG THE KERN/VENTURA COUNTY LINE NEAR PINE
MOUNTAIN CLUB. BUT AS THE LARGER PATTERN SHIFTS BY THURSDAY,
WETTING RAINFALL PROBABILITY HERE DECREASES TO AROUND 40%.
THOUGH GIVEN THE WILDCARD OF OUR UNIQUE TOPOGRAPHY AND JUST THE
RIGHT CONVECTIVE INITIATION, THE 5-10% PROBABILITY OF A WETTING
RAINFALL IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY APPEARS VALID,
THOUGH HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A 25-30% PERCENT CHANCE FROM 21Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
FIRE WEATHER
WHILE THE UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE IS SET TO BRING COOLER AND
RATHER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND A NICE BUMP IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, THERE IS CONCERN FOR LIGHTNING-INITIATED FIRES GIVEN
HOW CURED THE REGION'S FUELS ARE THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER.
UPON REGIONAL COLLABORATION THIS MORNING, OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
ARE SUCH THAT CONDITIONS FOR RED FLAG OR FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
ARE NOT SUFFICIENT. BUT GIVEN HOW DRY FUELS ARE, WE ARE STARTING
TO COMMUNICATE THE UNIQUELY ELEVATED FIRE RISK STARTING
WEDNESDAY FROM MORE WIDESPREAD PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING. UPDATES
ON THE FORECAST WILL [OF COURSE] BE PROVIDED IN THE FORECAST
AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS LATER TODAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...ND
AVIATION....BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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