583
FXUS66 KHNX 120539
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1039 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND THE
NEXT REGIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.
2. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST
CONTINUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH 20-30%
PROBABILITY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
3. POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES WITH CURED FUELS STILL REMAINS A
THREAT THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HEAT DOME CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AS TEMPERATURE BEGAN A COOL-
DOWN AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WAS
STILL FELT THIS TUESDAY, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
100 DEGREES (OUTSIDE THE MOJAVE DESERT) BY MID-WEEK AND THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF
REACHING 100 DEGREE DROPS TO BELOW 10 PERCENT OUT-SIDE OF KERN
COUNTY WITH THE ENTIRE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, POE OF REACHING 95 DEGREES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE 15 PERCENT. AFTERWARD, POE OF REACHING
100 DEGREES REMAINS VERY LOW AS CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE HIGH.
ENSEMBLE PRECIP-WATER ANALYSIS IS STILL SHOWING AN INCREASING
TREND IN VALUES SURGING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT
THE MOMENT, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT SUPPORTING THE BEST
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA. WHILE THE LOWER
END OF THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION PERCENTILES SPREAD FOR
THE PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS ZERO (0.00”), THE UPPER
END SHOWS A CHANCE (10 PERCENT) OF RECEIVING A WETTING RAIN
(0.10”-0.30”). THEREFORE, WHILE THE PROBABILITIES OF SEEING
HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE VALLEY IS LOW, THE SUPPORT OVER THE
SIERRA WILL ALLOW PROBABILITIES TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE 90TH
PERCENTILE RANGE. YET, THESE PERCENTAGE WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH
THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS. ENSEMBLES SHOW
THE MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST BY FRIDAY AS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A 5-15% PERCENT CHANCE FROM 21Z
WEDNESDAY UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page