125
FXUS66 KHNX 141801
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1101 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW SEASON AVERAGES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
2. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST THIS
AFTERNOON. DIMINISHING CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
3. BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER TYPICAL WIND-PRONE AREAS INCLUDING SAN
LUIS RESERVOIR, LAKE ISABELLA AND THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
THIS MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST, WHICH IS PUSHING COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE PREVIOUS PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE HAS TRACKED
FURTHER EAST AS THE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS, CAUSING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO SHIFT TO THE
GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A SLIGHT (TEN TO FIFTEEN PERCENT)
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO WARM UPSLOPING AIR FROM THE
CENTRAL VALLEY LIFTING THE MOISTURE FURTHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE
AS IT RISES ALONG THE LOCAL TERRAIN. FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, THE
TROUGH WILL BRING WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT; AFTERNOON HIGHS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THEIR COOLEST SINCE LATE JUNE AND FIVE
TO TEN DEGREES BELOW SEASON AVERAGES. THERE IS JUST A 60 TO 70
PERCENT PROBABILITY FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, INTO THE WEEKEND, THESE
PROBABILITIES RISE AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, RESULTING
IN MORE STAGNANT AIR BEING PRESENT ALOFT. THOUGH IN THE
MEANTIME, THE ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING A FEW BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
TYPICAL WIND-PRONE AREAS SUCH AS SAN LUIS RESERVOIR, LAKE
ISABELLA, AND THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES IN THE LEE OF THE TEHACHAPI
RANGE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS ANTICIPATED TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD, BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING TREND FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASON
AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
THE ADDED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CAUSE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA,
AND NEAR 50 PERCENT FOR THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS; DESERT VALUES WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT FROM LACK OF MOISTURE
INFLUENCE. THE WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL LOWER MINIMUMS
NEAR 15 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN AREAS, HOWEVER
MODERATE TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT WILL
LIMIT SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
MOJAVE DESERT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER
ABOVE 10,000 FEET ON THE SIERRA CREST BETWEEN 20Z FRI AND 00Z
SAT.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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