843
FXUS66 KHNX 160600
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASON AVERAGES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
2. BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER TYPICAL WIND-PRONE AREAS INCLUDING
SAN LUIS RESERVOIR, LAKE ISABELLA AND THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A CALMER PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER CALIFORNIA FOR THIS WEEKEND AS
THE REGION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO CONTRASTING AIR MASSES. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. WEAK FLOW ALOFT IN THIS TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE
SYSTEMS IS BRINGING ABOUT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE
PREVIOUS FEW WEEKS, BUT WHICH ARE NEAR SEASON AVERAGES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. GRADUALLY INTO THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD, THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS POISED TO OVERPOWER THE LOW, BUILDING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS EXPRESSES
LESS THAN A 25 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO EXCEED
100 DEGREES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, HOWEVER THESE
PROBABILITIES RISE TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
NEAR 100-DEGREE HEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
THE AFTERNOONS, BUT SEASONABLE MINIMUMS WILL ALSO OCCUR, LEADING
TO WIDESPREAD MINOR HEAT RISK EXCEPT FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS
WHERE THE THERMAL BELT IS TYPICALLY AT ITS STRONGEST. IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY, THERE IS LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
LOWS TO EXCEED 70 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
LARGER URBAN AREAS SUCH AS FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD; EACH OF
THESE LOCATIONS HAS A 55 TO 65 PERCENT PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 70
DEGREES EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
THE GRADUAL WARM-UP WITH AFFECT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE
REGION, CAUSING MINIMUMS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.
DAILY MINIMUMS IN THE VALLEY AREAS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED BETWEEN
20 AND 30 PERCENT WHICH WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA.
DESERT MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT. HOWEVER MODERATE TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES AT 50 TO
60 PERCENT WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE
NON-DESERT AREAS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER TYPICAL
WIND- PRONE AREAS INCLUDING SAN LUIS RESERVOIR, LAKE ISABELLA
AND THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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