310
FXUS66 KHNX 020431
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
931 PM PDT TUE SEP 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES BEGINS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE BY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS SOMEONE WHO LOOKS FORWARD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES EVERY YEAR,
THESE INCOMING TROUGHS ARE A WELCOMED SIGHT. SEPTEMBER 1ST
MARKS THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL AND IT WILL CERTAINLY
FEEL LIKE FALL. THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CONUS IS CONTINUING
TO COME ON SHORE AND WITH IT, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. PEOPLE
MAY NOTICE MORE CLOUDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS IS BECAUSE THE TROUGH HAS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS FALLING IN NORCAL. THE CENTRAL VALLEY IS
NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH THIS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER ARE AROUND THE MID 90’S. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A 0%
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) FOR ANY LOCATION IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TO BE ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY,
FRIDAY ALSO HAVE A POE OF 90 DEGREES AT 0%. THE POE OF 88
DEGREES FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME IS RANGES BETWEEN 30-45%, WITH
THE MOST LIKELY DAY OF EXCEEDING 88 DEGREES BEING THURSDAY. THE
POE OF 83 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RANGE FROM
60-80%, WITH THURSDAY AGAIN BEING THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 83 DEGREES. THEREFORE THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE UP TO 13 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
LOOKING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL AND THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION! MAYBE RAIN ON LABOR DAY WEEKEND
ISN’T EVERYONE’S IDEA OF FINISHING OUT SUMMER, BUT THIS
METEOROLOGIST LOVES THE RAIN. THE TROUGH COMING THROUGH WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A 18-36% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.10” (WETTING)
RAIN ON SUNDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING OUT IN THE MOJAVE
DESERT. TROPICAL STORM MARIE CONTINUES TO BE FORECASTED TO NOT
HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. IT MAY GIVE A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE AS IT PASSES BY
THE TROUGH.
LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM, TROUGHING CONTINUES TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE CENTRAL
VALLEY IN THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK
AND HAS ABOVE NORMAL (33-40%) PRECIPITATION. IN THE 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOK, THE TROUGH MAY WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO PREVAIL, AS MOST OF CALIFORNIA IS IN THE LEANING ABOVE
NORMAL (33-40%) FOR TEMPERATURES. IT IS A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR
PRECIPITATION AS MOST OF CALIFORNIA IS LEANING ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...BB
AVIATION....BB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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