418
FXUS66 KHNX 021930
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1230 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND RETURNS TEMEPRATURES TO AVERAGES
MIDWEEK.
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL ALSO BE
IN THE DESERT AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ARE A WELCOME
SIGHT AFTER PROLONGED HEAT THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
SUMMER. THE BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY DUE TO A
CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW IS PULLING COOLER AIR
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AS IT ROTATES CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE
SYSTEM AND IS DEPOSITING IT OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA, AND VALLEY HIGHS HAVE ONLY A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 85 DEGREES. A MORE SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE
WILL EMERGE FROM THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY, RAISING TEMPERATURES BY
A FEW DEGREES, BUT REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE. PERTURBATIONS FROM
THE SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COASTLINE WILL FLUCTUATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS BETWEEN MULTIPLE
DIRECTIONS. FRIDAY'S HIGHS DROP NEAR WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS AS THE
INFLUENCE BECOMES MORE WESTERLY, WARMS ON SATURDAY INTO THE
UPPER 80S WHEN THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTH, THEN COOLS AGAIN
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLIES TAKING HOLD AGAIN.
WITH SOUTH TO WEST FLOW TAKING HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND, WARMER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE REGION, RAISING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PUSH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
THROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND; THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE ON SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT INFLUENCE MAY REACH INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS IT STANDS, NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
GIVES A 50 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL TO EXCEED ONE-
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT, INCLUDING THE LIKES
OF BORON, MOJAVE, CALIFORNIA CITY, EDWARDS AFB, AND RIDGECREST
BETWEEN 5 AM SUNDAY AND 5 AM MONDAY. FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME AND
AMOUNTS, THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR THE VALLEY
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF KERN COUNTY AND TULARE COUNTY. THE HIGH-
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO (9 IN 10 CHANCE) SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION
ACROSS ANY OF THE LOCAL REGION; MEANWHILE THE LOW-CONFIDENCE
SCENARIO (1 IN 10 CHANCE) SHOWS MORE THAN 1 INCH FOR THE DESERTS
AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND BETWEEN 0.5-0.75" FOR THE VALLEY
AREAS. HOWEVER, THESE SCENARIOS WILL BE DETERMINED BASED ON THE
EXACT POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WARMING TREND WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS (30-40 PERCENT
MINRHS) IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PROGRESSING
EASTWARD, CAUSING DRY AIR TO MOVE IN ON THE BACKSIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THOUGH,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, AND THERE IS JUST A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 95 DEGREES NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOY
AVIATION...BM/MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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