251
FXUS66 KHNX 031949
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1249 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES...
1. TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND RETURNS TEMEPRATURES TO AVERAGES
MIDWEEK.
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL ALSO BE
IN THE DESERT AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT GOES-WEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES SUNNY
AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY ON THIS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, VALID AT 1230 PDT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CURRENTLY
FEATURES A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN SETUP IS BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, HOWEVER A STRAY SHOWER
OVER YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND SIMILAR ON FRIDAY, BEFORE WARMING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH
THE WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY, A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND
BRING ALONG CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF VISALIA. THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SHOWS A 20-50% CHANCE OF 0.01"
FOR MOST OF KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES, WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF A
TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE SHIFTS
AWAY FROM THE AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY MID NEXT WEEK SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY, AND CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE DETAILS WITH THIS.
THE CURRENT PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM SHOW A 20-50% CHANCE OF
24 HR PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN 0.01" EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AT TIMES, WITH SLIGHT MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA (AROUND 10-15%). BE SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES
AS WE GET CLOSER AND DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
FRIDAY MORNING. 40% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KMCE AND KBFL
BETWEEN 11Z-19Z FRIDAY, LESSER CHANCES AT KFAT AND KVIS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...STO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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