262
FXUS66 KHNX 041822
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1122 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WARMING TREND RETURNS TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT AVERAGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
2. RAINFALLS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND IN THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SIERRA NEVADAS OF KERN AND TULARE COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CLOUDS CROSSING CALIFORNIA WEST TO EAST, THANKS TO A
DISTURBANCE NORTH OF OUR AREA. COMBINED WITH PREVAILING
TROUGHING, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK, RANGING FROM LOW-TO-MID 80S IN
THE SAN JOAQIN VALLEY TO LOW-TO-MID 90S IN THE MOJAVE DESERT.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNSET, WITH GUSTS IN
TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS PICKING UP AFTERWARDS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) RUN AT
13 UTC, PROBABILITY OF VALLEY TEMPERATURES 90 DEGREES AND ABOVE
REMAIN LOW (30% AND LOWER) THROUGH TUESDAY, WHEN PROBABILITY
SHARPLY RISES TO 60-80%. FORTUNATELY, TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON
HEAT OUTSIDE THE LOWER MOJAVE DESERT (BELOW 2,000 FEET) REMAINS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. ONLY NEXT THURSDAY
SHOWS A LOW (10-20%) PROBABILITY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND HIGH DESERT.
ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL MOISTURE
PUSH FROM HURRICANE MARIE REMAINS ON TRACK TO BRING RAIN CHANCES
TO THE MOJAVE DESERT ON SUNDAY. NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY (50-70% PROBABILITY) IN KERN
COUNTY EAST OF HIGHWAY 14, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%)
EXTENDING JUST EAST OF BAKERSFIELD AND PORTERVILLE. CURRENTLY
RAINFALL ESTIMATES VARY WIDELY, BUT INCLUDE A 20-25% PROBABILITY
OF HALF AN INCH OR MORE RAIN IN SOUTHEAST KERN COUNTY,
INCLUDING EDWARDS AND BORON.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...ND
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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