766
FXUS66 KHNX 050452
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
952 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WARMING TREND RETURNS TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT AVERAGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
2. RAINFALLS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND IN THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SIERRA NEVADAS OF KERN AND TULARE COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY WAS A NICE START TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WHILE THE
OFFICIAL TEMPERATURES FOR OBSERVATION SITES WON’T BE PUBLISHED
UNTIL MIDNIGHT, MOST OBSERVATION SITES CONTINUED TO HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AS TROUGHING IS STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE
CURRENT PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF 90 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY IS 20-37% FROM DELANO SOUTHWARD, INCLUDING BAKERSFIELD.
FOR THE COUNTIES NORTH OF KERN, THE POE OF 85 DEGREES IS
80-90%. SO, MOST COUNTIES WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
BETWEEN 85-90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. NOW THAT SEEMS LIKE PERFECT
LABOR DAY WEEKEND WEATHER.
SUNDAY IS A SIMILAR STORY FOR MOST OF
THE VALLEY, IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE
OF DELANO AND BAKERSFIELD SEEING TEMPERATURES EXCEED 90 DEGREES
ON SUNDAY. EVEN THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL, AS
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) CURRENTLY HAS RIDGECREST AT
A 30% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE HAS MOVED MORE ON SHORE AND
PROVIDING TWO THINGS. IT’S PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, KEEPING
THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. IT’S ALSO PROVIDING A SURGE OF
MOISTURE. UNFORTUNATELY (OR FORTUNATELY, IF YOU DON’T WANT RAIN
ON THE PROVERBIAL PARADE), THE RAIN IS GOING TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE MOJAVE DESERT. EDWARDS HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN,
WITH A 45% CHANCE OF 0.10” OR MORE ON SUNDAY. TEJON PASS HAS A
25% CHANCE OF THE SAME AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THE SAME TIME FRAME.
THAT MIGHT NOT SEEM LIKE A LARGE CHANCE, BUT THAT IS ENOUGH RAIN
TO MAKE ROADS WET AND SLICK OVER THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN THAT
BUSY CORRIDOR.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER’S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK
HAS ALL OF CALIFORNIA IN AT LEAST A 50-60% CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND THE SIERRA NEVADA AT A 60-70% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THANKS TO TROPICAL STORM MARIE SENDING A
SURGE OF MOISTURE UP INTO ANOTHER TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST. EVEN
INTO THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK, THERE IS A 33-40% CHANCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...BB
AVIATION....BB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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