000
FXUS66 KHNX 051757
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1057 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
2. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERT SUNDAY.
3. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
4. MEDIUM PROBABILITY (40 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR MODERATE HEAT RISK
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THURSDAY.
5. ADDITIONAL CHANCES WEDNESDAY FOR RAINFALL IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA.
DISCUSSION
A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS FIRMLY CENTERED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. THE TROUGH IS EXPERIENCING A WEAK DEEPENING SOUTHWARD,
FORCING THE PREVAILING FLOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM THE
WEST TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION BY A FEW DEGREES; WHILE MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY FAILED TO REACH 85 DEGREES YESTERDAY, THERE IS AN
80 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY TODAY. SIMILAR PROBABILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION; HOWEVER, TO THE
SOUTH, OUTFLOWING MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL PUSH
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA,
THOUGH LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. BETWEEN 5 AM SUNDAY AND 5 AM MONDAY,
THERE IS A 60 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL TO EXCEED
0.01" FOR THE LIKES OF EDWARDS AFB, BORON, AND JOHANNESBURG, AND
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT FOR MOJAVE, FRAZIER PARK, TEHACHAPI,
AND RIDGECREST. PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 0.1" FOR THE
FIRST OF THESE LOCATIONS IS AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT, AND 20 TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE LATTER. ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT, AS THERE IS LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR 0.01"
FOR BAKERSFIELD NORTHWARD.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA CRESTS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AS MID-LEVELS
WINDS INTERACT WITH THE HEIGHTS OF THE LOCAL TERRAIN. FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THERE IS A 60 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
MAXIMUM GUSTS TO EXCEED 45 MPH ABOVE 10,000 FEET, WITH THE
GREATEST OF THESE CHANCES IN MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTIES UPHILL
FROM MAMMOTH LAKES.
AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK, THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
MOVE EASTWARD, WEAKENING ITS INFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
AND CREATING A BRIEF RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, A SECOND WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
CURRENT ONE, EXTENDING JUST NORTH OF HURRICANE MARIE'S FORECAST
TRACK. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS THE TROUGH AND TROPICAL SYSTEM
WILL PHASE TOGETHER, ALLOWING ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE INDICATED A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AT THE SAME TIME.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE, THIS
MOISTURE MAY ULTIMATELY REMAIN OFFSHORE. THOUGH, AS IT STANDS,
THE HIGH-END SCENARIO FROM THE NBM (1 IN 10 CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE) SHOWS JUST UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA BETWEEN 5 PM TUE AND 5 PM WED, AND LESS THAN 0.1" FOR
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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