636
FXUS66 KHNX 062103
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
203 PM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY, LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY.
2. MEDIUM PROBABILITY (40 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR HIGH HEAT RISK IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY; 70 TO 80 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR TRIPLE-DIGITS.
3. MEDIUM PROBABILITY (50 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
IN THE SIERRA NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, BEING FORCED TO THE NORTHEAST BY A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OREGON. LIGHT
PRECIPATION HAS OCCURRED SO FAR TODAY IN THE EASTERN KERN
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS, WITH BETWEEN 0.02-0.08" BEING
OBSERVED AT MOST LOCATIONS; MOJAVE HAS RECEIVED 0.20".
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE FOCUS OF
THIS MOISTURE PUSHES FURTHER EAST INTO NEVADA. MEANWHILE, CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF KERN COUNTY,
LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS AN 80 TO 90 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 85 DEGREES.
FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY, EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASON AVERAGES. THIS IS DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUING ITS PATH EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. IN ITS WAKE, THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO
WEST-EAST ZONAL FLOW, SUPPORTING THE NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD, RAISING TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE AVERAGES. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REACH ITS GREATEST STRENGTH
ON THURSDAY, WHERE THERE IS A 70 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
TRIPLE-DIGITS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ONCE AGAIN.
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF MARIE STILL APPEARS TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION MIDWEEK, HOWEVER CHANCES HAVE BEGUN TO
DOWNTREND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO RECEIVE PRECIPITATION. THIS
IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH HAVING A
GREATER HOLD OVER THE REGION AND KEEPING THE MOISTURE AT BAY OFF
THE COAST. STILL, THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE SIERRA NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY, BUT LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THE VALLEY AND MOST OF THE FOOTHILL
COMMUNITIES. THE HIGH-END SCENARIO FROM THE NBM (1 IN 10 CHANCE
OF OCCURRENCE) FOR THIS EVENT HAS TRENDED DOWN TOWARDS
0.5"-0.75" FOR THE SIERRA, THE GREATEST OF THESE TOTALS AROUND
MOUNT WHITNEY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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