437
FXUS66 KHNX 071150
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
450 AM PDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY, LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY.
2. MEDIUM PROBABILITY (40 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY; 70 TO 80 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR TRIPLE-DIGITS.
3. MEDIUM PROBABILITY (50 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
IN THE SIERRA NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE LAST REMMANTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE
MOJAVE DESERT EARLIER TODAY REMAINS OVER THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS AS A SMALL AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF KERN COUNTY. CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THAT REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, THE TROUGH
THAT HAS HELD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARDS AS
A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW IS FORMED FROM THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM MARIE AND A TROUGH PULLED DOWN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE CONUS. THIS CUT-OFF WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND PULL THE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE GULF STATES WEST
AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR OUR CWA FROM
TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE HEAT RISK
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEY AND DESERT STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS PROBABILITIES FOR
TRIPLE DIGITS INCREASE ON THOSE DAYS, AND LARGE POCKETS OF MAJOR
HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, THE WARMEST DAY AND THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR TRIPLE DIGITS AT 70-80%.
AT THE SAME TIME AS THESE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE VALLEY AND DESERT, A SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
VALLEY THIS TIME RATHER THAN OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT, THOUGH
CURRENT CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN (0.1 INCHES) IS AROUND 10-30%
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVES DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PUSHES THE RIDGE BACK
EAST. THIS TROUGHING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE A FOOTHOLD
ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN AXIS OF THIS TROUGH AND ALL ITS POTENTIAL
ENERGY WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH AROUND WASHINGTON AND OREGON,
MEANING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ANY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST,
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AS OUR CWA UNDER THE LEANING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CATEGORY FOR BOTH THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOKS, WITH NORMAL BEING IN THE LOW 90'S FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
EW/CM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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