022
FXUS66 KHNX 231838
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1138 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. MINOR HEAT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.
2. WARMER TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THURSDAY WITH A 30-50% CHANCE
OF TRIPLE DIGITS AND A GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE OF MODERATE HEAT
RISK THROUGHOUT THE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
WEAK RIDGING MOVING THROUGH THE WEST COAST AHEAD OF A TROUGH
EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. IN THE MEANWHILE, THE INTERACTION OF
THE TWO FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD SURGE OF SOUTHERLY AIR
INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS SURGE WILL RESULT IN THE WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY. 24 HOUR CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
IS NOTING A RISE OF 3 TO 6 DEGREES FROM THIS TIME ON TUESDAY.
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY, THIS
CHANGE WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO LOWER TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION MAY BE LIMITED AS ANY SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGES WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.
A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES HAS THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE
(POE) OF REACHING 100 DEGREES BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. YET, POE OF REACHING 95
DEGREES RISES WELL ABOVE 70 TO 90 PERCENT (ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY) BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND. FURTHERMORE,
ENSEMBLE 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD 98 TO 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS IS A
DOWNWARD TREND FROM 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES EARLIER IN THE WEEK
FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS DECREASING AS THE HOT DAY WILL RESULT IN NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT.
LONG TERM ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING RETURNING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS INDICATING A RETURN OF THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN THEIR PRECIPITATION
ANALYSIS. CURRENTLY, BOTH 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS SHOWS NEAR NORMAL GOING OUT 14 DAYS.
THEREFORE, WILL SEE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN TEMPERATURES OVER
THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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