739
FXUS66 KHNX 240542
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1042 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. MINOR HEAT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.
2. WARMER TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THURSDAY WITH A 30-50% CHANCE
OF TRIPLE DIGITS AND A GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE OF MODERATE HEAT
RISK THROUGHOUT THE VALLEY
DISCUSSION
IN SPITE THE CALENDER SHOWING WE ARE IN FALL, AT LEAST ONE MORE
HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR 2026. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH, THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKING TO THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS (NBM), UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE (50-60% CHANCE) OF
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 152. ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES PRESENT A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT ILLNESS TO THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT. AFTER THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK TO SEASONALLY AVERAGE AS THE PREVAILING ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TURNS BENIGN.
GOING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, MULTIPLE WEATHER MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EXTENT OF HOW FAR THE TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA IS MUCH LESS CONFIDENT, THUS
PROVIDING A LARGE SPREAD OF SCENARIOS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING TO THE NBM FOR SOME CLARITY, A SMALL BUT NOTABLE (5-10%
CHANCE) SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST A TRACE OF RAIN EXISTS BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A HIGHER (15-20%) CHANCE FOR
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND MOJAVE DESERT OF SOUTHEAST KERN COUNTY.
INSTEAD OF PICKING A WINNER TO RUN WITH, UPDATES TO THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL COME AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO OCTOBER, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
START THE MONTH. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK (COVERING
SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3) SHOWS A SLIGHT LEANING (40-50% CHANCE)
TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASING TO A 50-60% CHANCE
IN THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID OCTOBER 1-7. NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS APPARENT IN EITHER OUTLOOK, INDICATING
NO CLEAR EVIDENCE FOR A WET, DRY, OR NORMAL START TO WATER YEAR
2027.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...ND
AVIATION....EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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