690
FXUS66 KHNX 241704
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1004 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. MODERATE HEAT RISK TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
2. MINOR HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.
3. LAKE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SAN LUIS RESERVOIR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
4. LIKELY CHANCES OF GUSTY CONDITIONS FROM 15-25MPH IN THE
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
TIME FOR YOUR FAVORITE PART OF THE DAY, READING THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION! TODAY WE RECEIVE A RELIEVING WELCOME TO
THE FALL SEASON WITH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 95-100
DEGREES FOR THE VALLEY, AWESOME! UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING WARM DESERT AIR INTO OUR REGION, TODAY'S
TEMPERATURES CAN APPROACH 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (>60% CHANCE) OF EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES TODAY OCCUR
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE VALLEY FROM MADERA TO
BAKERSFIELD. FOLLOWING TODAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN
TO SEASONALLY AVERAGE IN THE COMING DAYS. MODELS ARE INDICATING
A LIKELY CHANCE (>50%) FOR 25MPH WIND GUSTS AT THE SAN LUIS
RESERVOIR BETWEEN 3PM-8PM, LEADING TO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEING
ISSUED. ELSEWHERE, THERETH EXISTSETH A LIKELY (>50% CHANCE) OF
20MPH GUSTS IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED 25MPH.
MULTIPLE WEATHER MODELS PROVIDE A CONSENSUS OF A TROUGH MOVING
INTO OUR REGION, BRINGING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT THE
DEPTH OF THE TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE, MODELS HAVE
BEEN PROVIDING A RANGE OF SCENARIOS FOR OUR CWA. A SLIGHT
PROBABILITY (10-20%) FOR >0.01 INCHES OF RAIN CURRENTLY EXISTS
BETWEEN MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND MOJAVE DESERT. ANOTHER SCENARIO SUGGESTS A ZONAL
PATTERN AND THUS LESS IMPACT ON WEATHER IN OUR REGION. FINALLY,
THE LEAST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A RIDGING PATTERN SHOWN IN
CLUSTERING WITH A LOW REPRESENTATION FROM THE MODELS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, IT MAY BE BEST TO AVOID BETTING ON A WINNER IN
VEGAS AND TO CONTINUE MONITORING OUR FORECASTS INTO THE WEEKEND
AS MODELS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
LOOKING AHEAD TO OCTOBER, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
START THE MONTH. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK (COVERING
SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3) SHOWS A SLIGHT LEANING (40-50% CHANCE)
TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASING TO A 50-60% CHANCE
IN THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID OCTOBER 1-7. NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS APPARENT IN THE NEAR TERM OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SAN LUIS RESERVOIR.
PUBLIC...MOORE
AVIATION....MC
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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