716
FXUS66 KHNX 250416
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
916 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. MINOR HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
2. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY, BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND NEXT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.
3. MODERATE CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
SOUTH OF MERCED COUNTY REACHED TRIPLE DIGITS TODAY, INCLUDING
THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES AT BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO. WHETHER
THIS WILL BE THE LAST 100 DEGREE DAY OF 2026 REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
FOR NOW, A NEUTRAL ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN IS ESTABLISHING OVER
CALIFORNIA, RETURNING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONALLY AVERAGE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HEAT RISK WILL BE MINOR AND ONLY CONCERN
THOSE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COMBINED
TROUGH APPROACHING CALIFORNIA AND TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSH
NORTHWARD FROM HURRICANE POLO AND ODALYS. THERE IS STILL HIGH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PRECIPITATION RANGES, BUT THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA STARTING MONDAY. A MODERATE CHANCE
(40-50%) FOR A TRACE OR MORE RAINFALL IS FORECAST MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 20-30% CHANCE FOR A TRACE OF RAIN
OR MORE ALSO EXTENDS INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SLOPES OF KERN
COUNTY ON TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES (10-20%) FOR SNOWFALL HAVE
ENTERED THE NBM FORECAST MONDAY MORNING ABOVE 9,000 FEET
ELEVATION, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING EVEN A DUSTING OF
SNOW IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS A REGION-WIDE COOLDOWN WITH THIS TROUGH.
BY MONDAY, EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE LOW 80S
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND MOJAVE DESERT WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 85 DEGREES.
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CALIFORNIA, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
THE PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF
OCTOBER ARE CONTINUING TO TREND UPWARD. ACCORDING TO THE 6-10
AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, THERE
IS A 50-60% CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH OCTOBER
8. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST, WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL
TO INDICATE HOW RAINFALL WILL TREND TO START THE MONTH.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...ND
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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