681
FXUS66 KHNX 251842
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1142 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. MINOR HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES COOL TO EARLY FALL NORMALS.
2. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA SUNDAY, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA MOUTAINS.
3. LOW BUT NOTABLE CHANCES (10-12%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SIERRA
NEVADAS MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO
OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIFT AND BECOME LESS INFLUENTIAL
OVER THE COMING DAYS. TODAY HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MUCH
CLOSER TO AVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS TROUGH HOWEVER IS NOT THE MOST ROBUST, AND
THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN TODAY IS ALMOST 0%, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINING IN PLACE. THE PROBABILITY OF TEMEPRATURES EXCEEDING 90
DEGREES TODAY IS 65-80% IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY, WHILE THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY (ALMOST 0%) OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 95 DEGREES.
A SOMEWHAT WEAK TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN, AND TEMEPRATURES WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE RANGE
OF THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. HEAT RISK WILL BE
MINOR AND ONLY CONCERN THOSE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, A STRONG MORE ROBUST TROUGH, WITH
POTENTIALLY A CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR REGION; THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PATTERN HOWEVER GIVEN THAT IT IS SEVERAL DAYS
OUT. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH AN ENSEMBLE MEMBER INDICATING
A RIDGE BUILING OVER OUR REGION BY MONDAY, INDICATING UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TROUGH PATTERN IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE A TROUGH PATTERN, INCREASING OUR OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN A STRONG TROUGH IN OUR AREA. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIPITATION RANGES ON MONDAY, BUT THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
(NBM) CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE SIERRA
NEVADA STARTING MONDAY. A MODERATE CHANCE (40-55%) FOR A TRACE OR
MORE RAINFALL IS FORECAST MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
EVENING. A 10-25% CHANCE FOR A TRACE OF RAIN OR MORE ALSO EXTENDS
INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SLOPES OF KERN COUNTY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED SNOWFALL IN HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUTAINS REMAINS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCES (10-20%) FOR SNOWFALL HAVE ENTERED THE NBM FORECAST
MONDAY MORNING ABOVE 9,000 FEET ELEVATION, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS A REGION-WIDE COOLDOWN WITH THIS TROUGH.
BY MONDAY, EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE LOW 80S
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND MOJAVE DESERT WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE (10-20%) FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 85 DEGREES. IN ADDITION
TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS
GREATER THAN 30 MPH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALONG THE MOJAVE DESERT
SLOPES AND THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUTAIN RANGE (40-55%). AFTER THE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CALIFORNIA, A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF
OCTOBER ARE CONTINUING TO TREND UPWARD. ACCORDING TO THE 6-10
AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, THERE
IS A 50-60% CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH OCTOBER
8. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST, WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL
TO INDICATE HOW RAINFALL WILL TREND TO START THE MONTH.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MC
AVIATION....MOORE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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