375
FXUS66 KHNX 260340
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
840 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. MINOR HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO
EARLY FALL NORMALS.
2. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA SUNDAY, BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUTAINS.
3. LOW BUT NOTABLE CHANCES (10-12%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SIERRA NEVADA MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE NO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OBSERVED FROM THIS PASSAGE, DUE TO THE
DISTANCE THE DISTURBANCE, IT WILL INFLUENCE OUR TEMPERATURES.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE OVER
THE DISTRICT FOR THE NEXT DAY (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY). AGAIN, DUE
TO THE DISTANCE OF THE DISTURBANCE TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, THE
COOL-DOWN WILL BE MINIMAL AS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF
REACHING 90 DEGREES WILL RANGE FROM 70-90 PERCENT OF SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION, POE OF REACHING 35 MPH ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT
(WIND FAVORED SPOT) WILL ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
SATURDAY AS SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRECEDE A SECOND DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER CALIFORNIA AND BEGIN AFFECTING CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE
WILL RESIDE OVER SACRAMENTO, ENOUGH ENERGY WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND PROVIDE THE DISTRICT WILL A SIGNIFICANT
COOL-DOWN AND STRONG WINDS. BY SUNDAY, POE OF REACHING 90
DEGREES DROPS BELOW 30 PERCENT (OUTSIDE OF BAKERSFIELD) WITH
MOST AFTERNOON HIGH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S. AT THE SAME TIME,
WIND GUSTS POE OF REACHING ABOVE 35 MPH INCREASES OVER THE
FAVORED SPOTS AS PLACES LIKE MOJAVE AND RIDGECREST ARE EXPECTED
TO HAVE PERCENTAGES IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE.
MONDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS MOISTURE FROM HURRICANES
POLO AND ODALYS SURGE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST AREA. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SECOND DISTURBANCE
AND THE HURRICANES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ABLE TO
ENTER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA. CURRENTLY LONGER-TERM
ANALYSIS DOES SHOW WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ABLE TO PUSH NORTHWEST
AND INTO THE THE SIERRA NEVADA AS THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. AGAIN, WHILE LIMITED, ENSEMBLE
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS DOES PLACED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS (AND
THUNDERSTORMS) ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, POE OF REACHING 90
DEGREES BOTTOMS OUT AT NEAR ZERO AS THE COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS
MUCH OF THE DISTRICT. THEREFORE, WITH LESS OF A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM THE VALLEY TO THE DESERT, WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH STARTING ON MONDAY.
ENSEMBLE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE REGION
BY TUESDAY AS RIDGING RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST. A WARMING TREND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENTER ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS PLACING CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA IN THE LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CATEGORIES
FOR BOTH 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY PERIODS. AT THE SAME TIME,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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