746
FXUS66 KHNX 281816
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1116 AM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY, BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
2. LOW BUT NOTABLE CHANCES (10-20%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SIERRA NEVADA MONDAY.
3. LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE ISABELLA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
4. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME.
DISCUSSION
A DEEP TROUGH THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS MOVED INTO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS STRONG
TROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS AN 80-90% CHANCE OF HIGHS IN THE VALLEY TODAY NOT
EXCEEDING 85 DEGREES. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH, BUT THEY WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO
AREAS TYPICALLY PRONE TO HIGH WIND GUSTS, SUCH AS ALONG THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, AND MOJAVE DESERT
SLOPES. WIND GUSTS INCREASE IN THE VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS OVER THE
AFTERNOON WITH A 5 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS OF 25 MPH IN
THE VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN WIND
PRONE AREAS ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES (40-55%, WITH SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADAS WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY). A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
LAKE ISABELLA, WHILE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS
RESERVOIR HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
INCREASES IN MOISTURE AND RISING MOTION FROM THE TROUGH WILL HELP
BRING A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A 10 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH
OF SNOW ON MONDAY ABOVE 10,000 FEET. THE VALLEY, HOWEVER, HAS A 5
PERCENT CHANCE OR LESS OF ANY PRECIPITATION. THE FOOTHILLS HAVE LESS
THAN A 30% CHANCE OF ANY RAIN ON MONDAY WITH SHARP GRADIENTS IN THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN AS ELEVATION INCREASES. MEANWHILE, THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SEE A 25 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. WHILE LOW, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING TODAY ALONG
THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH SLIDES AWAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING IN A 60 TO 80 CHANCE OF HIGHS OF 95 DEGREES AND
GREATER IN THE VALLEY FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
VALLEY DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD, POSING A RISK TO POPULATIONS
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT
PROPERLY HYDRATED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
REGION AFTER TODAY. IN ADDITION, THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADAS AND MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THIS EXPECTED WARMTH ALIGNS
WITH THE CPC'S TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK THAT HAS A 70 TO 90 PERCENT
CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE NEXT 6-10 AND 8-14 DAYS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT WIND GUSTS TODAY LIKELY AT OR
BELOW 20 MPH, ESPECIALLY AT KBKL AND KMCE WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NW
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY TODAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ332.
PUBLIC...MC
AVIATION....MC
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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